US Economics Weekly Port closure to have no significant effects on economy The collapse of the Francis Scott Key bridge, which was hit by an out-of-control container ship this week, could result in a lengthy disruption to the Baltimore port. Nevertheless, since that port is... 28th March 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Jan. 2024) The broad-based strength of GDP growth in January and February means the economy almost certainly outperformed the Bank of Canada’s expectations in the first quarter and reduces the immediate risk of... 28th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Economic Outlook On course for a soft landing In the quarters ahead, economic activity in most of the world will be characterised by soft landings. We expect GDP growth to be below trend, but meaningful recessions should be avoided and the US... 28th March 2024 · 45 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s path to faster growth, Houthis and Gulf oil output Egypt’s recent policy shift has been met with a lot of optimism among investors and will likely see its new IMF deal approved by the Executive Board tomorrow. But the policies involve some near-term... 28th March 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Q4 2023 Final) The final Q4 2023 GDP release confirmed that the UK economy was in the mildest of mild technical recessions at the end of last year. But timely indicators suggest the economy probably exited recession... 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Feb. 24) 28th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Mar. 24) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Inflation continued to fall across Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) last month and in most... 27th March 2024 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Prop from stimulus to be short-lived China’s economy has fared better recently and policy support is likely to remain a near-term prop to growth. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook. 27th March 2024 · 15 mins read
Africa Economic Outlook Recovery stuck in low gear Sub-Saharan Africa will record a pick-up in growth over the coming years, helped by an improving external environment reducing the threat of further large currency falls as well as sovereign defaults... 27th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Asia Economic Outlook Asian central banks waiting for the Fed With inflation easing and domestic demand struggling in much of emerging Asia, central banks are likely to start cutting interest rates soon. The one remaining concern for policymakers is the fear of... 27th March 2024 · 27 mins read
China Activity Monitor CAP: Still buoyed by policy support Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy has performed reasonably well over the last few months – better than much recent commentary would suggest. We expect activity growth to slow... 27th March 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe generally rose in March, and support our view that regional GDP growth strengthened at the start of this year. 27th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (March 2024) The EC business and consumer survey for March reinforces the message that the economy is close to recession and that, although price pressures in the services sector eased somewhat, they remain... 27th March 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (Mar. 2024) The past month has seen Egypt’s economic crisis turn around with the devaluation of the pound, aggressive interest rate hike, and unlocking of a new IMF deal. There have been false dawns before, but... 27th March 2024 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Monetary policy will remain restrictive for longer Australia’s GDP growth will remain soft throughout the first half of the year so the recent stalling in inflation should be followed by a renewed moderation. However, as the labour market remains very... 27th March 2024 · 20 mins read
Canada Economic Outlook Increasing economic slack to trigger interest rate cuts We expect weak GDP growth of 0.8% this year, and a fall in inflation to less than 2% next year, to persuade the Bank of Canada to cut its policy rate back to 2.5% by mid-2025. A recovery in... 26th March 2024 · 14 mins read
