Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook

RBA won’t cut interest rates until mid-2025

Activity has slowed to a standstill in both countries. Although output growth should gather momentum going forward, it will remain below its pre-pandemic average. However, with underlying inflation...

26th June 2024 · 20 mins read

Africa Economics Update

Kenya protests could reignite sovereign default fears

The escalating protests in Kenya will add to the near-term headwinds facing economic activity as well as raise further question marks over the government’s ability to push through fiscal consolidation...

25th June 2024 · 4 mins read

US Economic Outlook

Consumers beginning to feel the pinch

We expect core inflation to be back to the 2% target by early next year, allowing the Fed to begin cutting interest rates from this September. GDP growth will remain a little lacklustre this year but...

25th June 2024 · 16 mins read

Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (Jun. 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. After a strong start of the year, regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read

China Economic Outlook

Manufacturing boom to shore up growth a while longer

China’s economy is on course to expand by 5.5% this year, buoyed by policy support and strong exports. But we remain less sanguine about the medium-term outlook.

25th June 2024 · 15 mins read

India Chart Pack

India Chart Pack (June 2024)

Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Prime Minister Modi begins his third term with a weakened mandate, but an economy that is primed to...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read

UK Economic Outlook

Next government to benefit from economic tailwind

The next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July suggest will be a Labour one, will benefit from a combination of lower inflation, lower interest rates and faster economic growth...

25th June 2024 · 18 mins read

Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack

Middle East and North Africa Chart Pack (June 2024)

Growth in the Gulf economies is likely to pick up in the coming quarters, particularly as oil output starts to rise from October. We think non-oil sectors will continue to grow strongly. But the...

25th June 2024 · 1 min read

Event

Drop-In: Global Economic Outlook – Recovery signs clouded by political uncertainty

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Are signs of recovery sustainable? Is inflation receding enough for more central banks to join the global easing cycle?

US Chart Pack

US Chart Pack (June 2024)

The recent encouraging inflation data reinforce our view that the Fed will cut interest rates in September. We remain confident that core inflation is heading back to the 2% target, which should allow...

24th June 2024 · 1 min read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: Growth slows but near-term prospects still good

Our China Activity Proxy suggests that economic growth weakened in May on the back of a fall in services activity. Industry also slowed, following months of outperformance. We doubt this marks the...

24th June 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Poland Activity Data (May)

The Polish activity data for May were a mixed bag with retail sales bouncing back, while industry suffered a renewed contraction. With domestic demand likely to stay strong over the coming months, we...

24th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Ifo Survey (June 2024)

June’s decline in the Ifo business climate indicator (BCI) to a very low level highlights that even after Germany’s economy grew in Q1, it is far from back to full health.

24th June 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

Euro-zone PMIs point to lower bund yields and a weak euro

Weaker-than-expected euro-zone PMIs in June leave us confident in our view that bund yields will edge down over the coming months, while we doubt spreads will fall back much in France or Italy. This...

21st June 2024 · 5 mins read

Global Economics Update

PMIs show weaker activity but resilient price pressures

The latest flash PMIs suggest that GDP growth in most major advanced economies slowed at the end of Q2. But weaker services activity hasn’t translated to softer price pressures, meaning central banks...

21st June 2024 · 3 mins read