Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia GDP (Q4 2023) Although GDP growth last quarter was in line with what the RBA had expected, the Bank will take comfort from the fact that households continue to exercise spending restraint, while productivity... 5th March 2024 · 3 mins read
China Economics Focus China’s economic roadmap for 2024 The policy agenda laid out at the National People’s Congress today is a reasonably pro-growth one. The new fiscal plans are supportive, monetary policy continues to have an easing bias, and the... 5th March 2024 · 15 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q4 2023) South Africa’s economy posted a measly 0.1% q/q increase in GDP in the final quarter of last year and the latest evidence points to a soft start to 2024 too. But we still think that, with the drags... 5th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response PMIs (Feb. 2024) February’s batch of PMIs from the Middle East and North Africa continued to show that the Gulf’s private non-oil sectors have started 2024 on a strong footing. But Egypt’s economy appears to be... 5th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Better corporate governance still not paying off The decline in listed firms’ profit margins over the last couple of years despite the tailwind from a weaker yen suggests that improved corporate governance isn’t changing corporate behaviour. While... 4th March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs paint a mixed picture for EM industry The pick-up in the EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that EM industry continued to strengthen in Q1. But while manufacturers have benefitted from strong demand in some economies (such as India... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to slight improvement in industry February’s manufacturing PMIs suggest that global industrial activity improved at the start of this year, but that activity in emerging markets continued to outperform that in advanced economies... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Is Turkey’s economy getting the medicine it needs? The unexpected re-acceleration in Turkish GDP growth in Q4 challenges the view that aggressive monetary tightening delivered over the second half of last year is rebalancing the economy. If inflation... 1st March 2024 · 8 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Soft landing, at least in aggregate The return to growth in the fourth quarter means it is probably safe to say that the economy has avoided recession, but that is mainly due to rapid immigration. Per capita GDP fell for the fifth... 1st March 2024 · 6 mins read
US Rapid Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb.) The unexpected fall in the ISM manufacturing index in February still leaves it on a gradual upward trend, but the more important news for the Fed is that there is still no sign that a material rebound... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
ECB Watch ECB won’t cut rates until June (at the earliest) Next week’s ECB meeting looks set to be a fairly predictable one (famous last words…) in which policymakers leave interest rates unchanged and say they want more evidence that inflation is subsiding... 1st March 2024 · 7 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Housing leading the economy out of recession The government’s desperation to close the gap on Labour in the opinion polls means surprisingly big tax cuts shouldn’t be ruled out from the Budget on Wednesday despite the fiscal constraints that... 1st March 2024 · 5 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2023) The stagnation in Brazil’s GDP in Q4 and the decline in household consumption confirmed that the economy lost momentum sharply and, while we expect a pick-up in growth in the coming quarters, we’re... 1st March 2024 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly Shifting consumption patterns, world-beating growth The much-awaited Household Consumption Expenditure Survey for 2022-23 showed a shift in consumption patterns since the previous survey over a decade ago, underscoring the need to re-weight India’s CPI... 1st March 2024 · 3 mins read
