China Economics Weekly Monetary and fiscal policy turning more supportive Policymakers’ concerns about the near-term outlook have become much more visible over the past couple of weeks, with weak Q2 growth and poor stock market performance triggering rate cuts and talk of... 26th July 2024 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Ukraine’s debt restructuring, Hungarian wage growth Ukraine’s government agreed a preliminary deal this week to restructure $20bn of its sovereign debt, but the big picture is that the ability to service its debt will depend on the future course of the... 26th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone continues sluggish recovery Data released this week suggest that the euro-zone recovery is fizzling out and leave us comfortable with our below-consensus forecasts for economic growth. Next week, we expect to learn that euro... 26th July 2024 · 11 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Antipodean central banks to part ways on policy A new survey of businesses shows that New Zealand's retail industry is in dire straits. Given the sizeable contribution of retail trade to employment, the risk is that the labour market will... 26th July 2024 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt energy woes, UAE GDP, Tunisia elections Blackouts continued in Egypt this week, and while there are some short-term fixes, the government will need to boost investments over the coming years to avoid repeats, particularly if it also wants... 25th July 2024 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US GDP (Q2 2024) The sharper-than-expected pick-up in second-quarter GDP growth to 2.8% annualised should make the Fed a bit more comfortable about keeping policy unchanged next week, but the recent loosening of... 25th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Global Inflation Watch Sticky services inflation raises upside risks Inflation still looks set to be in line with central banks’ targets next year (see Chart 1), but upside risks have increased outside the US. With the sharp falls in energy and food inflation behind us... 25th July 2024 · 16 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Ifo Survey (Jul.) The large fall in the German Ifo BCI in July, which follows a similar drop in the Composite PMI published yesterday, adds to the impression that the rebound in Germany’s economy earlier in the year... 25th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Chart Pack Japan Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) Our Japan Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Following a wobbly period around the turn of the year, the economy is on the mend and should gather... 25th July 2024 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Latin America Chart Pack (July 2024) Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Regional growth appears to have slowed in Q2 and we think it will be sluggish in... 24th July 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Olympics no game changer for French economy Business surveys released this morning add to evidence that the Olympics will lift activity in France slightly in Q3. However, activity is likely to drop back again in Q4 and we still think annual GDP... 24th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs offer some hope of easing services price pressures The latest flash PMIs suggest that while GDP growth probably slowed in Europe at the start of Q3, it continued to recover in Japan. Although the rise in shipping costs has caused manufacturers’ input... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (July 2024) Our India Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The economy is primed to grow by 6.5-7% per year between 2024 and 2026, which would put India on... 24th July 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2024) The flash PMIs for July suggest that the euro-zone’s recovery may be fizzling out at the start of Q3, while output price pressures eased but remained high in the services sector. 24th July 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul. 2024) July’s composite PMI suggests some of the recent rebound in activity this year may have been due to catch-up growth following the weakness of activity last year and GDP growth is easing towards a more... 24th July 2024 · 3 mins read
