UK economy grows at double forecast pace Ashley Webb, economist at Capital Economics, said: “The improving economic outlook suggests the government may benefit from the economic recovery being stronger than most forecasters anticipate.” Webb... 11th July 2024 · Financial Times
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (May 2024) The stronger-than-expected 0.4% m/m rise in GDP in May (consensus forecast 0.2%, CE forecast 0.3%) will be welcomed by the new Chancellor after announcing earlier this week that she will make... 11th July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus UK Focus: Reeves' growth speech and the government's economic priorities This report was originally published on 10th July, 2024 The speech this morning by Chancellor Rachel Reeves attempts to do two things: reset the narrative around growth, following an October Budget... 10th July 2024 · 15 mins read
Asia Economics Update AI and friendshoring boosting (some) Asian exporters Exports from Taiwan, Korea and Vietnam have surged over the past 18 months, thanks to strong demand for AI-related products and friendshoring. In contrast, shipments from the rest of the region have... 10th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The latest data suggest that the recovery in euro-zone activity will continue – notwithstanding the uncertainty created by France’s snap election. The euro-zone labour market is tight, with... 9th July 2024 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Weakness boosts odds of another rate cut There was little to be encouraged by this week, with labour market conditions continuing to soften, the business surveys weak and the real estate board data pointing to a risk of renewed falls in... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Chile slows, Colombia rates, Milei’s second reform stage The softer-than-expected activity data out of Chile this week add to the evidence that the economy lost momentum in Q2, which poses a downside risk to our growth forecast this year. Elsewhere... 5th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (May 2024) Retail sales ticked up in May and we expect them to continue to rise gradually from here. 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response German Industrial Production (May) The slump in German industrial production in May fully reverses the increase in output at the start of the year and suggests that German industry is not out of the woods yet. We expect output to... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Softening domestic demand will keep RBA from hiking With inflation risks still running high, the Reserve Bank of Australia has been reluctant to drop its tightening bias. However, we still expect the Board to leave rates on hold at its upcoming August... 5th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily Slowing US activity unlikely to burst the AI bubble The US ISM services data published yesterday suggested that US economic growth slowed in June. Even so, the S&P 500 index surged on the news. And we think it will rise much further, as stock market... 4th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Canada Chart Pack Canada Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) We expect that a sustained period of below potential growth will help bring core inflation to the 2% target by the end of the year and persuade the Bank of Canada to cut interest rates further, with... 4th July 2024 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle, PMIs, Oman income tax Egypt’s cabinet reshuffle gave the government a facelift, but it doesn’t look like there will be any U-turns on policymaking – and particularly the fiscal consolidation path. Meanwhile, the batch of... 4th July 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The stronger-than-expected rebound in GDP in Q1 and the improving outlook for households suggests the next government, which the polls ahead of the election on 4th July imply will be a Labour one... 3rd July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (May) The latest activity data suggest that Russia’s economy continued to motor along in May, driven by stronger growth in industry. The economy is clearly overheating and this continues to fuel inflation... 3rd July 2024 · 2 mins read
