Global Economics Update Higher oil price adds to headwinds for world economy While we still think that this year’s rise in oil prices will soon go into reverse, we have bumped up our end-year forecast. The now smaller drop in oil prices we’re expecting doesn’t change the... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economic Outlook Stuck in the middle lane The six-month delay to Brexit until 31st October 2019 has put the brakes on interest rate hikes and left the economy travelling in the middle lane, with GDP likely to rise by 1.5% this year. But... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Slowest regional growth since 2015 Regional GDP growth is set to slow to its weakest pace since 2015 this year and our forecasts for most countries are below consensus. Weakness in the euro-zone will weigh on the highly-open economies... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Surveys remain consistent with slow growth The Bank of Canada’s Business Outlook Survey showed that firms’ expectations for future sales improved only slightly at the start of the year. The future sales balance is still consistent with annual... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Election crosses halfway stage India’s mammoth general election that began earlier this month is now past the halfway stage. Votes have been cast in 302 out of the country’s 543 constituencies, with four days earmarked for further... 24th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Sri Lanka: the economic impact of the attacks The deadly terrorist attacks that took place across Sri Lanka on Easter Sunday are first and foremost a human tragedy, but are also likely to have severe economic consequences. A big drop in tourist... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Mar.) March’s stronger-than-expected activity data suggest that Poland’s economy has, so far at least, shrugged off weakness in Germany. We estimate that GDP growth came in at around 4.5% y/y in Q1 – only a... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update New Zealand - Is growth bottoming out in New Zealand? Our New Zealand Activity Proxy (NZAP) has picked up in early 2019, which suggests GDP growth may be bottoming out. That said, economic activity is likely to remain subdued over 2019 as business... 23rd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Services slipping as manufacturing stabilises There are tentative signs that US and global manufacturing may be stabilising, but the latest surveys suggest that activity in the domestic-focused services sector is weakening. 22nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Spending boost from sales tax hike to remain muted Private consumption surged ahead of the last two sales tax hikes as households brought forward spending but collapsed as soon as the tax had been raised. The data thus far suggest that consumers have... 22nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Soft PMIs dampen optimism about a global turnaround Hopes for an imminent revival of global growth were brought back down to earth by the latest batch of surveys. Falls in the US and euro-zone composite PMIs suggest that it’s too soon to call a global... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Headline GDP masks underlying weakness This week’s data releases helped to confirm that first-quarter GDP growth was much better than we originally feared, but the underlying strength of the domestic economy is a concern. As it stands now... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) The 1.0% m/m rebound in control group retail sales in March was not enough to prevent real consumption growth from slowing sharply in the first quarter, although it does at least provide a decent base... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Mar.) March’s activity data suggest that Russian GDP growth slowed markedly at the start of this year, weakening from 2.8% y/y in Q4 to 1.0-1.5% y/y in Q1. The pace of expansion is likely to remain soft... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Stronger Q1 GDP growth would not be sustained The reasonably strong run of hard data for the first two months of the year has prompted us to revised up our estimate of Q1 GDP growth to 0.3% q/q. However, the downbeat tone of the business surveys... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) February’s 0.8% m/m rise in retail sales was a pleasant surprise given the unusually severe winter weather that month. Although consumer confidence has rebounded a touch so far this year, it is still... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
