US Economics Update State & local government investment boom won’t last The unprecedented surge in state & local government investment, which added close to 0.4%pts to annualised GDP growth in both the first and second quarters, is unlikely to be sustained. This is... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Services PMI (Jun.) Following the falls in the manufacturing and construction surveys, the smaller decline in the headline business activity balance of the services PMI, from 51.0 in May to 50.2 in June, was a bit of a... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Jun.) June’s PMI figures were robust across the Gulf, but we expect that activity will slow as oil prices falter and fiscal policy becomes less supportive. Meanwhile, subdued price pressures in Egypt mean... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Final PMIs (Jun.) While the Composite PMIs for June were flat for Spain and edged up for Italy, the overall picture remains one of weak economic growth in the second quarter. And with price pressures remaining weak... 3rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (May) The record trade surplus in May was supported by the recent surge in iron ore prices so will not completely flow through to stronger net exports in Q2. Even so, we expect net trade to continue to make... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (May) The fall in Brazilian industrial production in May, of 0.2% m/m, adds to the evidence that the economy fell into a technical recession in Q2. With inflation also easing, an interest rate cut seems... 2nd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update PMIs add to evidence of Q2 slowdown The further fall in the EM manufacturing PMI last month suggests that EM growth slowed in Q2 and the forward-looking components of the survey point to a weak start to the third quarter. 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Solid fundamentals will prevent consumer meltdown With the economic slowdown feeding through to weaker job gains, the apparent surge in consumption growth in the second quarter will not be sustained. But the strength of households’ balance sheets and... 1st July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jun.) Although the ISM manufacturing index didn’t fall as far as feared in June, the decline in the more forward-looking new orders component suggests the worst is still to come. 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI picked up in June, but it still points to a poor performance in Q2. While the survey sometimes provides misleading readings, its consistent weakness suggests growth... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.) The Swiss manufacturing PMI for June shows that conditions in the industrial sector have worsened going into H2, while the indicator from Sweden suggests that the economy contracted in the second... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Dovish central banks set to cut rates further he subdued global outlook and weakness in domestic economic activity has caused us to revise down our forecasts for interest rates in Australia and New Zealand. In Australia, annual GDP growth slowed... 1st July 2019 · 9 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jun.) India’s manufacturing PMI readings remained consistent with decent output in June but it is unlikely be a barrier to further policy loosening. There is a high chance that a looser fiscal stance will... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response PMIs (June) The latest survey data suggest that China’s economy is coming under renewed pressure as a result of cooling foreign demand and waning fiscal support, which should trigger further monetary easing. 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea Trade, Manufacturing PMIs (June) Very weak trade data for Korea and the fall in the manufacturing PMIs in June suggest that economic conditions deteriorated at the end of last quarter. After a weak Q1, GDP growth looks unlikely to... 1st July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response CoreLogic House Prices (Jun.) We expect the pace of house price declines will continue to gradually ease this year with house prices reaching a trough by the end of the year. We suspect house prices may start to rise again... 1st July 2019 · 2 mins read
