UK Economics Update Explaining weak investment and strong employment The current divergence between weak business investment growth and strong employment growth won’t last as it’s largely due to the uncertainty caused by Brexit. If there’s a no deal Brexit, both will... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Feb.) Given the weak start to the year, it looks like Russian GDP growth is shaping up to be weaker in Q1 than in Q4. But February’s activity data were more encouraging, and it does at least appear that... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Chart Pack Strong surveys at odds with slowing growth The incoming monthly activity data suggest that GDP growth has slowed from 2.6% annualised in the fourth quarter to only around 1.5% in the first. At the same time, however, the business surveys have... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Growth faltered in early 2019 Retail sales growth picked up in January, but activity data across the economy as a whole were weak at the start of 2019. Growth will probably remain subdued over Q1, but then strengthen later in the... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Housing downturn becoming a major drag We believe that the downturn in the housing market will have a larger negative impact on the economy than most believe and have lowered our GDP forecast for 2019 to 1.5%. The upshot is that the labour... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
India Chart Pack Rupee rally unlikely to last The 3% rise in the rupee against the US dollar so far in March has left it at its strongest rate since August, and means it has outperformed all other major EM currencies this month. This is related... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Germany stuck in the slow lane A slow start to the year, combined with a deterioration in prospects for both export growth and household consumption, has prompted us to cut our forecast for economic growth in Germany to only 0.5%... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Data Response Sri Lanka GDP (Q4) GDP growth in Sri Lanka slowed sharply in the final quarter of last year, and although we expect growth to pick up a little over the coming quarters, a combination of tighter fiscal and monetary... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Weak industrial production points to lower prices The recent upturn in most commodity prices appears at odds with the negative trend in global manufacturing. Of course, supply factors could explain the divergence, and probably do in the case of oil... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Slowdown in Czech economy likely to continue We think that weakness in Germany and softening domestic demand will result in Czech GDP growth slowing to about 2.5% this year. This puts us at the bottom of the range of forecasters. 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Chart Pack Wage growth weakening Major electronics firms and carmakers offered workers smaller base pay increases during this year’s spring wage negotiations than they did last year. (See Chart.) Only a small share of firms... 19th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Drop in wealth to weigh on spending growth Consumers’ housing wealth declined last year for the first time in over three decades. The modest fall is unlikely to cause a drop in consumption, but it does suggest that spending growth will remain... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What next for business investment? What happens to business investment next depends on Brexit. But in this Update, we estimate how much has been lost, how much will come back and when. The main message is that some boost is in the... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q4) The pick-up in Chilean GDP growth from 2.6% y/y in Q3 to 3.6% y/y in Q4 was driven in large part by stronger domestic demand, but this has also caused the current account deficit to widen rapidly... 18th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Muted inflation strengthens case for Fed patience The deluge of data this week provided some mixed signs on economic activity, but one clear theme from the producer and consumer price releases was that what little inflationary pressure there is in... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Feb.) The further decline in manufacturing output in February confirms that the global industrial slowdown is now weighing more heavily on US producers. With tighter fiscal and monetary policy constraining... 15th March 2019 · 1 min read