Canada Data Response Manufacturing Sales (Feb.) February’s drop in manufacturing sales volumes adds to the signs that the economy had a poor month. While part of the weakness may reflect temporary factors, such as unseasonably severe winter weather... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Feb.) The better-than-expected 1.3% m/m rise in Turkish industrial production in February provides further evidence that the economy pulled out of recession in Q1. But the recovery is likely to be slow. 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update What do the ONS “Faster Indicators” tell us? The widespread use of digital technology should eventually make it possible to read how the economy is faring earlier and more accurately. The “Faster Indicators” released for the first time by the... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Business Outlook Survey (Q1) The latest Business Outlook Survey suggests that GDP growth will remain weak while core inflation could fall sharply. This supports our view that the Bank of Canada’s next move will be to cut interest... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Is China blocking other countries’ path to prosperity? Rising automation, excellent infrastructure and the migration of some productive capacity into the cheaper interior mean that China is likely to remain a highly competitive export manufacturing centre... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economic Outlook Slower growth after the election Growth in India is likely to slow as policy tightens after the general election. Even so, it should still be the best performing major emerging economy in the coming years. 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Will weak investment undermine future growth? The recent Brexit-related fall in investment won’t be a big barrier to an eventual rebound in GDP growth. After all, investment hasn’t fallen by much and in the near term how efficiently capital is... 15th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Mar.) & Industrial Production (Feb.) March’s rise in inflation probably won’t dissuade the RBI from cutting interest rates again at the next policy meeting. But with core inflation still elevated, the latest data underline the risks from... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly The oversight on stockbuilding A lot of the chatter about how stockbuilding ahead of Brexit has boosted GDP growth in Q1 ignores the fact that businesses buy many components from overseas. That’s why imports have been rising at a... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly A look ahead to Indonesia’s election With Joko Widodo around 20%-points ahead of Prabowo Subianto in the latest opinion polls, the result of Wednesday’s presidential election in Indonesia looks like a foregone conclusion. Mainly because... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response Bank Lending & Broad Credit (Mar.) Broad credit growth rose in March, but is still consistent with further economic weakness in the near term. We think that the People’s Bank will loosen policy further over coming months. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (Feb.) February’s industrial production data suggest that output in the sector performed a little better in Q1 than at the end of last year, but the sector is still struggling. And with global economic... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Weak South Africa weighs on regional outlook Activity data out this week added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy faltered in Q1. As we argue in our latest Outlook, problems in South Africa are a key reason why we think that regional... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly Childcare boost & trade negotiations The introduction of free childcare for children aged three to five and for those below three years of age from low-income families should encourage even more women to join the workforce. Improved... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economic Outlook Policy restraint to limit scale of rebound We expect stimulus to shore up growth in the next few months. But with the scale of policy support smaller than in previous downturns, the sharp economic rebound that some are expecting is unlikely. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Weekly World Bank too optimistic, remittance crown retained The World Bank released its latest growth forecasts for India this week and, while we wouldn’t get too hung up on small differences in the numbers, the trajectory of growth that the Bank is... 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
