UK Economics Weekly Prospect of higher interest rates drifting further away Despite the rebound in monthly GDP growth from -0.4% m/m in April to +0.3% m/m in May, the economy probably just about contracted in Q2 as a whole. Some of that is just payback from activity being... 12th July 2019 · 8 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (May) May’s strong increase in euro-zone industrial production should allay concerns about the wider economy falling into recession, but it is still consistent with GDP growth slowing in the second quarter... 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (May) The stronger-than-expected Turkish industrial production figures for May suggest that the economy may just have avoided a fresh fall in GDP in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect the economic recovery will be... 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Singapore GDP (Q2 Advanced) The advanced estimate of Singapore’s GDP suggest the economy performed very poorly last quarter. Although the economy should start to pick up a little over the coming quarters, helped by looser fiscal... 12th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly (Another) fraud scandal at PNB, vehicle sales slump The latest fraud scandal engulfing Punjab National Bank – one of India’s largest state-owned banks – is a stark reminder that recent measures to revive the banking sector need to be supplemented with... 12th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: More evidence of Q2 recovery Activity data for May added to the evidence that the economy rebounded following its contraction in Q1. Even so, we think that the Reserve Bank will cut its policy rate from 6.75% to 6.50% next week. 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Ireland’s GDP (Q1 2019) Economic growth in Ireland appears to have slowed to little more than a crawl, which is likely to in part reflect concerns about the rising risk of a no-deal Brexit. We estimate that, if the UK left... 11th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update Leading indicators point to slowdown, not recession Leading economic indicators underline that most of the recent weakness has been confined to the export-orientated industrial sector, suggesting the risks of an outright recession are contained for now... 10th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Ailing auto sector still a drag on global industry The global industrial downturn so far has been fairly broad-based, but cars have fared particularly badly.While some temporary factors have been to blame, the longer-term drivers of the slowdown point... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech underperformance unlikely to continue The Czech economy has underperformed its regional peers in recent years due to its larger exposure to the euro-zone and weaker household spending. However, the Czech slowdown is close to bottoming out... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (May) Despite the rebound in monthly GDP in May, the economy may have contracted in Q2 as a whole. But it’s going to be close and we doubt we’re heading for a recession as GDP will probably rise in Q3... 10th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Aggressive easing heralds end of housing downturn Australia’s housing downturn will probably come to an end towards the end of the year. That means that the drag from falling housing wealth on consumer spending will subside. It also means that... 10th July 2019 · 22 mins read
Japan Economics Update A mini-bubble is building in Japan’s property market Froth has returned to Japan’s housing market, especially in urban areas where prices are now back to levels seen just before the collapse of the property bubble in the early nineties. A price... 10th July 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Lower rates failing to boost business investment The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys point to a contraction in business equipment investment and suggest that labour market conditions are starting to soften. 9th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Brazil: pension reform won’t revive economic growth Brazil’s pension reform bill would, if passed in its current form, reduce vulnerabilities stemming from the dire public finances. But we are sceptical that it would lead to the near-term turnaround in... 9th July 2019 · 4 mins read
US Economics Update Latest pick-up in productivity growth unlikely to last The recent acceleration in productivity growth to a decade high of more than 2% y/y has renewed hopes that we could finally be seeing a structural pick-up linked to a new wave of technological... 9th July 2019 · 4 mins read
