Japan Economics Update Credit boom bypassing the domestic economy Credit is growing at its strongest rate since the early 1990s. Given that investment growth has started to slow, the spike in private debt seems odd at first glance but much of it appears to have been... 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Korea GDP (Q2) The strength of growth in Q2 more than offset the contraction in Q1, but with the economy still likely to face large external headwinds in the second half of this year, a sustained upturn is unlikely. 25th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs imply a weak start to Q3 Advanced economy PMI surveys for July revealed that the relatively resilient services sector struggled to support growth, as the industrial downturn deepened. And the latest results of the Global... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Update Profit slump driven by weak demand, not rising wages The recent drop in corporate profits appears to have been driven by weak global demand rather than by rising wages. Accordingly, profits are likely to fall further over coming months even if we’re... 24th July 2019 · 2 mins read
China Activity Monitor A strong end to Q2 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth jumped at the end of last quarter. But data issues raise questions about the true extent of the pick-up. And mounting domestic and external... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Benefits from lower company tax rate would be small Australia’s corporate tax rate remains one of the highest in the world. However, the boost to GDP growth from lowering it towards the levels seen elsewhere would probably be quite small. 24th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Industry unlikely to defy survey pessimism for long Manufacturing surveys across Central Europe have overstated the weakness of industry recently, but the strength of production growth looks unsustainable. As prolonged weakness in the euro-zone takes... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Update Back to the future for FDI policy Measures announced during this month’s union budget to ease restrictions on foreign direct investment into India should help to assuage concerns that policymakers have embraced a more insular view on... 24th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Recovery is further off than the IMF assumes The IMF has revised down its global growth forecasts, but they are still much stronger than our own. Its forecasts for advanced economies look particularly optimistic and we think that the changing... 23rd July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Chart Pack Equities have further to fall Indian equities have dropped by over 3% so far in July (see Chart 1), even as most other Asian equities have held up reasonably well this month. The drop appears to have been triggered by proposals in... 23rd July 2019 · 9 mins read
Japan Economics Update Surge in participation rate nearing its end The surge in the participation rate that has boosted employment by nearly a tenth since 2012 and thereby underpinned stronger economic growth is running out of steam. This will have a big impact... 22nd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update State infrastructure spending won’t come to the rescue The federal government has urged state governments to step up infrastructure spending. But given the deterioration in their finances, we suspect that states are more likely to reduce capital spending. 22nd July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM growth picked up in Q2 Early signs suggest that aggregate EM growth strengthened in Q2. (See Chart 1.) Our GDP trackers point to a recoveries across most of the emerging world. The rebound seems to have strongest in... 19th July 2019 · 9 mins read
China Economics Weekly Property construction boom is fizzling out China’s economy has faced multiple headwinds over the past year, but it has also received a significant – and underappreciated – boost from accelerating property construction. Property developers... 19th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for gas sector challenging The US may overtake Australia and Qatar to become the world’s largest exporter of LNG by 2024 as production costs in the US are lower than in Australia. For now, that’s not too big a concern as the... 19th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Jun.) The sharp narrowing of the trade deficit in June isn’t indicative of developments in trade volumes across the second quarter as import volumes outpaced export volumes. We expect the resulting drag... 18th July 2019 · 2 mins read
