Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Markets Capital Flows Monitor (Jun. 2019) Net capital outflows from emerging markets look to have persisted last month, suggesting that the US-China trade war continued to weigh on investor sentiment. The truce announced at the late-June G20... 17th July 2019 · 4 mins read
US Chart Pack Economy holding up on eve of rate cut The Fed is almost certain to cut interest rates at the FOMC meeting later this month, despite some better news on the real economy. Payroll employment growth was much stronger than expected in June... 17th July 2019 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jun.) June’s activity data suggest that following a weak Q1, Russian GDP growth slowed in Q2. This, combined with soft inflationary pressures, supports our view that the central bank will cut rates next... 17th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy strengthened in May Activity data for May suggest that South Africa returned to growth in Q2. We estimate that GDP rose by about 1.0% q/q saar in the three months to May, and that activity strengthened further in June... 17th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi consumer strength unlikely to be sustained Household consumption in Saudi Arabia expanded at its fastest pace in more than three years in Q1 but the prospect of fresh subsidy cuts and tax hikes means that this recent strength won’t last. 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update What will the second quarter growth figures show? Early indicators suggest that GDP growth slowed sharply across Emerging Asia in the second quarter. Although most countries should stage a gradual recovery over the coming year, growth is likely to... 17th July 2019 · 3 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) Industrial production was unchanged in June, as a weather-related drop in utilities output offset a 0.4% m/m rise in manufacturing output. But with global demand still weak, we doubt the latter... 16th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Signals from timely indicators not as bad as they seem Several timely economic indicators have lurched down recently, suggesting that even our below-consensus global growth forecasts might be too optimistic. But some are not as reliable as is often... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish investment boom has further to run A further sharp rise in EU structural fund inflows will support strong Polish fixed investment growth over the next couple of years. But that won’t be enough to prevent overall GDP growth from slowing... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Upside risk to our Prague industrial rent forecasts The Czech economy has slowed over the past 18 months, which, alongside strong new development, has kept industrial rents in check. But, with signs of renewed vigour in occupier demand and rents... 16th July 2019 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Focus Is this as good as it gets for households? The strength in consumer spending has been crucial to the economy’s resilience over the past year but there are three reasons why many people think that the consumer sector is living on borrowed time... 15th July 2019 · 12 mins read
Japan Economics Update What do nuclear restarts mean for Japan? Japan’s government will probably expand the number of operating nuclear reactors from nine now to 17 by 2030. While the impact on the trade balance will be tiny, electricity prices may fall... 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response GDP (Q2), Activity & Spending (Jun.) A stronger end to the quarter didn’t prevent growth from slowing in Q2 and we see more weakness on the horizon. Activity held up better than anticipated, but we expect this strength to be temporary. 15th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Divergent trends in Swedish and Norwegian growth The Norwegian economy appears to have gathered pace in Q2, but the latest data from Sweden paint an increasingly gloomy picture for domestic demand. So while the Norges Bank will continue to buck the... 12th July 2019 · 4 mins read
India Data Response Consumer Prices (Jun.) & Industrial Production (May) Consumer price inflation in India rose last month but the headline rate remains below the RBI’s target, while core inflation is no major concern. An August rate cut is almost certain. 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (May) The much larger-than-expected drop in Mexican industrial production, of 2.1% m/m, reinforces our downbeat view on the economy, and is likely to push the central bank towards cutting interest rates at... 12th July 2019 · 2 mins read
