India Economics Weekly Pressure for reform ratcheting up The withdrawal this week of the preferential trade status granted by the US to several Indian products will have limited economic impact given that exports of the affected goods were worth just 0.2%... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Update Inflation Monitor (May) Headline CPI inflation is likely to have remained below the RBI’s 4.0% target in May, which will be used by the central bank as vindication of its change to a more dovish policy stance in yesterday’s... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Economic outlook is subdued regardless of tariffs Our forecast that the housing downturn would weigh on economic activity and force the RBA to cut rates was proven right this week. And given recent data suggest there is considerable spare capacity in... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Labour Cash Earnings (Apr.) Although wage growth recovered in April, sampling distortions mean that it remains much weaker than what is implied by the tightness of labour market. But even once those distortions abate, a... 7th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Escalation of trade war to raise hit to global GDP to 0.5% We have now incorporated a further escalation in the US-China trade war into our baseline forecasts. On its own, this is unlikely to have a major impact on global GDP growth. But combined with... 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response International Trade (Apr.) The smaller trade surplus in April largely reflects commodity price movements so we expect net trade will still make a positive contribution to growth in Q2. 6th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s holding back Brazil’s recovery? Brazil’s recovery from its 2015-16 recession has been exceptionally weak by historic standards, and many of the factors which have held back growth are unlikely to unwind any time soon. Indeed, as... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What does the fall in oil prices mean for EMs? The $10pb fall in global oil prices over the past couple of weeks will improve the terms of trade for major EM oil importers, such as India, and will help to provide some relief for countries with... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Growth to drop back after second quarter rebound Although the Bank of Canada’s expectations for first-quarter GDP growth were more accurate than our own, we still think the Bank is underestimating the strength of the rebound in growth this quarter... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Apr.) & Final PMIs (May) The upward revision to May’s euro-zone PMI leaves it still pointing to GDP growth slowing in Q2. The fall in retail sales in April suggests this is partly due to subdued consumption growth. 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Growth in Saudi Arabia to slip further Our GDP Tracker suggests that Saudi Arabia’s economy slowed in the first quarter as a pick-up in the non-oil economy was offset by weakness in the oil sector. We think that the slowdown has further to... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response GDP (Q1) The economy is off to a rough start in 2019, and we suspect that things won’t get better anytime soon. Indeed, we expect the housing downturn to remain a drag on the economic outlook over the rest of... 5th June 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Apr.) The weakness of Brazilian industrial production, which expanded by just 0.3% m/m in April, was in part a result of a fall in output in the mining sector, which should unwind in the coming months. Even... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: 2019 set to be even worse than 2018 The surprisingly-sharp 3.2% q/q saar fall in output in Q1 has led us to cut our 2019 full-year growth forecast to a below-consensus 0.5%. Given downbeat survey data for Q2, it is possible that the... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Apr.) The fall in retail sales in April demonstrates that the housing downturn is continuing to weigh on consumption growth. And we expect subdued consumption growth will continue to dash any hopes of a... 4th June 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Trade war doesn’t account for much of the global slowdown The direct effects of the trade war on global GDP have so far probably been negligible. The indirect impact, via weaker confidence and investment, has been bigger. But we estimate that even this... 3rd June 2019 · 1 min read
