Global Economic Outlook Much too soon to call a recovery We expect the recent weakness of global growth to persist for much longer than is commonly assumed. Previous policy tightening has yet to take its full toll on activity in the US and China’s stimulus... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economic Outlook In the shadow of the euro-zone Weak growth in the euro-zone overshadows near-term prospects in Switzerland and the Nordics. We expect activity to slow in most countries this year and to stay sluggish in 2020. As a result, price... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Polish fiscal plans, Turkish economy past the worst Plans outlined by Poland’s government this week confirmed that fiscal policy will be loosened significantly this year and that there will be more scope for stimulus in 2020 than we had previously... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales (Mar.) Not only did retail sales post a bumper rise in March, but February’s figure was revised up too, adding to the evidence that despite the political chaos, the economy grew at a decent rate of 0.3% q/q... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Apr.) The disappointing flash PMIs for April suggest that, despite some stronger industrial production data in the first couple of months of this year, the euro-zone is not yet out of the woods. They also... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Stable inflation, Weak Q1 in SA, Emefiele’s legacy Soft inflation readings across Africa this week supported our view that policymakers will cut rates in key economies. New figures added to the evidence that South Africa stumbled in Q1, while Nigerian... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Technology slump bottoms out, Philippines budget A slump in electronics exports has been a key drag on economic growth across Asia in recent months, but there are tentative signs that the worst may now be over. Meanwhile, after months of delays, the... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Seasonality, tax cuts distort the industrial output data Among the better-than-expected data published this week, industrial output growth stood out as especially strong after it jumped by the most since March 2009. But there are reasons to think that... 18th April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Economic growth to remain weak GDP growth in the euro-zone is likely to be only slightly stronger this year than in the second half of 2018. Hopes for a sharp rebound in export demand will probably be disappointed, meaning that the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Indonesia: Jokowi will struggle to revive economy The two key economic challenges facing President Joko Widodo in his second term are boosting GDP growth and reducing Indonesia’s external vulnerabilities. We don’t think he will succeed in either. 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Economy faltered in early 2019 Retail sales figures for February added to the evidence that South Africa’s economy struggled in the first months of the year. Growth will probably pick up later this year, but it will remain weak... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response GDP (Q1), Activity & Spending (Mar.) China’s economy stabilised in Q1 thanks to a marked improvement in activity last month. Admittedly, the latest surge in industrial production is hard to take at face value and is likely to be... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response External Trade (Mar.) The renewed trade deficit in March is not an area of immediate concern and we think that net trade may have actually boosted GDP growth in Q1. The bigger picture, however, remains unchanged – the... 17th April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Argentina This Briefing is a reference guide with our latest views and forecasts for Argentina’s economy, including the prospects for key macroeconomic and financial market variables such as gross domestic... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Inventories to weigh on GDP growth later this year A surge in business inventories appears to have boosted first-quarter GDP, but the now elevated inventory-to-sales ratio suggests that inventories will be a drag over the remainder of this year, which... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Mar.) The 0.1% m/m decline in industrial production in March completed a weak first quarter in which industrial production contracted by 0.3% annualised, as the US factory sector succumbed to the global... 16th April 2019 · 1 min read
