UK Economics Weekly Brexit delayed, but choice of destinations remains the same The postponement of Brexit removes the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal next Friday. But Parliament is still facing the same four Brexit options it always has; deal, no deal, revoke... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed too late to prevent slowdown By making it clear that interest rates will not be raised this year and that quantitative tightening will start to wind down earlier than previously suggested, the Fed was even more dovish this week... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal front-loading, land demand, BRI obstacles While China’s incoming economic data have mostly been weak recently, two under-reported positives have helped shore up growth: a fiscal splurge by local governments and strong property construction... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone likely to have grown slowly again in Q1 This week delivered more data which suggest that the euro-zone economy grew at a meagre pace in Q1. And the Composite PMI is now at a level where the ECB has often loosened monetary policy in the past... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Retail Sales (Jan.) The recent decline in unit labour cost growth suggests that February’s drop in one of the Bank’s measures of core inflation is a sign of things to come. Although retail sales volumes performed a touch... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Delay: What’s new and what’s not? The delay granted by the EU last night has pushed back Brexit by at least two weeks, from 29th March to 12th April, but four options remain on the table – deal, no deal, no Brexit or another delay. So... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) The drop back in the euro-zone Composite PMI for March comes as a disappointment to those hoping that the economy was beginning to turn a corner. And far from easing, as many had anticipated, the... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A deeper cut & immigration limitations We now believe GDP growth will slow to 1.5% in 2019, which would be well below the analyst consensus of around 2.5%. And we suspect that the recent uptick in the unemployment rate in New South Wales... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) Inflation remained flat in February and will probably start to slow over the coming months due to falling energy prices and moderating underlying price pressures. 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Chart Pack Consumers unfazed With just eight days to go until Brexit and uncertainty higher than ever, it is reassuring that households increased their spending on the high street at a decent rate in February. Admittedly, the... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Retail Sales & Public Finances (Feb.) With just eight days to go until Brexit and MPs seemingly losing their heads, it is reassuring that in February households kept calm and carried on spending. The health of the public finances in... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Feb.) February’s activity data suggest that the Polish economy has, so far at least, shrugged off the recent weakness in Germany and continued to grow at a rapid pace in Q1. 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
RBNZ Watch New Zealand - Hold the line The Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) will retain its neutral stance when it keeps rates on hold at its meeting on Wednesday the 27th March 2019. The softening in GDP growth in the second half of... 21st March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response New Zealand - GDP (Q4 2018) We think that the slowdown in annual growth in the fourth quarter will set the tone for growth to remain subdued throughout 2019. But as long as the labour market remains tight and underlying... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Chart Pack Oil price boost for the Gulf to prove fleeting The recovery in oil prices since the start of this year is only likely to provide brief respite for the Gulf economies. Brent crude briefly touched $68pb this month, marking a 30% rise from the trough... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Activity Monitor Growth slows further in early 2019 Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that the economy softened in the second half of 2018 and weakened further in the first two months of this year. The slowdown has been mild so far, with growth... 20th March 2019 · 1 min read