Asia Economics Update Malaysia: rates left unchanged but further easing likely Bank Negara Malaysia’s (BNM) left interest rates unchanged at 3.0% today, but kept the door open to further easing. With growth set to slow in the second half of the year, we think the central bank... 9th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Ailing auto sector still a drag on global industry The global industrial downturn so far has been fairly broad-based, but cars have fared particularly badly. While some temporary factors have been to blame, the longer-term drivers of the slowdown... 8th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Data Response German Industrial Production (May) The small increase in output in May does not signal the end of the Germany’s manufacturing downturn. On the contrary, it now looks almost certain that production declined in Q2 overall, contributing... 8th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Shifting down a gear Following a strong start to the year, GDP growth is set to slow as domestic demand drops after the sales tax hike and external demand softens further. We think that the unemployment rate will creep... 8th July 2019 · 21 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (May) Despite a slump in May, machinery orders point to broadly stable capital spending in the second quarter. Even so, we expect investment growth to slow sharply over the coming quarters. 8th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly Powell may temper market expectations of rate cuts The data this week were consistent with a continued slowdown in economic growth, but don’t yet look weak enough to convince the Fed to cut interest rates immediately. We suspect that Chair Jerome... 5th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A closer look at the EM investment slump EM investment growth probably slowed to its weakest rate in twenty years in early 2019, although most of that seems to be related to tighter financial conditions and low commodity prices rather than... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Labour markets succumbing to the gloom The past month has brought evidence of a continued slowdown in global growth and this weakness now seems to be spreading to labour markets. While advanced economy employment growth held up very well... 5th July 2019 · 12 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly OPEC deal won’t derail Russia, lira rally may be short-lived The rollover of OPEC’s oil production quotas – announced this week – will be an unhelpful headwind for Russia’s economy, but it is unlikely to prevent growth from picking up in the second half of 2019... 5th July 2019 · 6 mins read
India Economics Update The fiscal maths don’t add up The finance ministry attempted to demonstrate its commitment to fiscal prudence by lowering the FY19/20 deficit target in today’s union budget announcement. However, it is also aiming to boost... 5th July 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly A US$5trn economy by 2025? The main message from the annual Economic Survey released this week is that the government has made it a key objective to turn India into a US$5trn economy by FY24/25, from US$2.7trn currently. But... 5th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update UAE: slowdown to be short-lived Economic growth in the UAE will slow over the rest of this year due to the impact of oil production cuts. But preparations for the World Expo will help to drive a rebound in 2020 and we expect the... 4th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss Consumer Prices (Jun.) Swiss inflation held steady at a very low rate in June and we expect it to fall to zero during the second half of the year on the back of the stronger franc. With deflationary fears set to come back... 4th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Will an IMF deal solve Pakistan’s problems? The policy tightening and structural reforms that Pakistan has agreed to as the price of a deal with the IMF are likely to lead to a sharp slowdown in economic growth in the near-term but should also... 4th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (May) The weakness in retail sales so far in Q2 suggests consumption growth remained sluggish in the second quarter. Sluggish consumption is one reason why we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.8% in 2018 to... 4th July 2019 · 2 mins read
US Economics Update State & local government investment boom won’t last The unprecedented surge in state & local government investment, which added close to 0.4%pts to annualised GDP growth in both the first and second quarters, is unlikely to be sustained. This is... 3rd July 2019 · 2 mins read
