Asia Economics Update Singapore: weak growth to prompt loosening from MAS The Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today left its policy settings unchanged, but given the worsening outlook for the economy, we think it will loosen policy at its next meeting in October. 12th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economic Outlook Africa: Recovery will stall in 2019, pick up next year Economic growth across Africa as a whole will remain weak in 2019 due to very poor performances from Nigeria and South Africa. Conditions will probably improve next year, but regional growth will be... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Feb.) The decent 0.3% m/m rise in Mexican industrial production in February suggests that the sector made a small positive contribution to growth in Q1, having exerted a drag of about 0.3%-pts in Q4. This... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Households vulnerable despite robust labour market Despite the strength of the labour market, the precarious condition of households’ finances suggests that consumer spending growth will continue to disappoint. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update New Brexit deadline, new forecasts The second delay to Brexit, to 31st October 2019, and developments overseas have altered the assumptions that underpin our UK economic forecasts. As such, we have tweaked those forecasts. The main... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Activity data point to weak Q1 The latest activity figures add to the evidence that growth in South Africa softened at the start of 2019. Conditions will probably pick up later in the year, but growth will remain tepid. 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economic Outlook Weak growth to prompt policy easing We expect GDP growth across Emerging Asia to be very weak this year, with a number of countries set to grow at their weakest rates since the global financial crisis. A key drag will come from falling... 11th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economic Outlook Oil producers to falter as Egypt strengthens We hold below-consensus growth forecasts for the Gulf States, where oil output cuts and renewed fiscal austerity will result in a sharp slowdown. We are, by contrast, relatively optimistic about the... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Is China blocking other countries’ path to prosperity? Rising automation, excellent infrastructure and the migration of some productive capacity into the cheaper interior mean that China is likely to remain a highly competitive export manufacturing centre... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Monthly GDP & Trade (Feb.) The initial estimate of GDP was once again stronger than the survey evidence had suggested, providing a reassuring sign that the economy has weathered the Brexit chaos and overseas slowdown well. But... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Chart Pack Signs of stagnation across Scandinavia The latest indicators have added to the evidence that economic growth in much of Scandinavia slowed at the start of 2019. Indeed, after strong finishes to 2018, surveys suggest that GDP in Sweden... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Feb.) Although core machinery orders rebounded in February, they are still likely to have fallen across the quarter. That suggests that business investment fell in Q1 and we think that it will remain weak... 10th April 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Surveys add to evidence of labour market slowdown The latest NFIB and JOLT surveys suggest that investment growth is set to slow and provide further evidence that labour market conditions are no longer tightening. 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook Rates to fall to fresh record-lows A slowing global economy will magnify the headwinds from the housing downturn in Australia and slower net migration in New Zealand. We think that GDP growth will slow more sharply than most anticipate... 9th April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Data Response Whole Economy PMIs (Mar.) Strong PMIs across the Gulf were driven by higher oil prices rather than a sustained economic recovery. We expect that activity will slow as oil prices falter, though spending on the 2020 Expo will... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Sweden Private Sector Production (Feb.) The weak private sector production data from Sweden for February suggests that the economy is likely to have flat-lined at best in Q1. With core price pressures expected to remain subdued, we continue... 8th April 2019 · 1 min read
