Australia & New Zealand Data Response Retail Sales (Jun./ Q2) The weakness in real retail sales in Q2 suggests consumption growth remained sluggish in the second quarter. That’s one reason why we expect GDP growth to slow from 2.8% in 2018 to just 1.5% this year... 2nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest that industrial woes are far from over The further fall in Markit’s global manufacturing PMI in July adds to the evidence that industry remained in the doldrums at the start of the third quarter, with forward-looking components suggesting... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Jul.) The further decline in the ISM manufacturing index to a three-year low of 51.2 in July, from 51.7, confirms that the downturn in the factory sector continued into the third quarter, and suggests that... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Jun.) The 0.6% m/m fall in Brazilian industrial production in June adds to the evidence that GDP contracted again in the second quarter. We expect a recovery in the second half of the year, but it will be... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response IHS Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The manufacturing PMI remained at 48.0 in July, which was slightly stronger than expected (consensus 47.7), but it still indicates that manufacturing output fell at the start of Q3. However, the... 1st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Commodities Update China’s PMIs still point to weakness ahead China’s official and unofficial PMIs both rose in July, but they remain consistent with a renewed slowdown in economic activity, which will be a key factor weighing on commodity prices later this year... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (July) The sharp fall in Norway’s manufacturing PMI in July adds to signs that the economy is losing momentum and lends support to our view that the Norges Bank will hike rates by less than investors expect... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
India Data Response Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) India’s manufacturing PMI reading for July is consistent with decent output in the sector at the start of Q3. But this won’t be a barrier to further monetary easing, and we’ve pencilled in another... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Jul.) PMI readings for Emerging Asia were slightly more positive at the start of Q3, but the big picture is that they remain low by past standards and there are few signs of a meaningful turnaround yet. 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Caixin Manufacturing PMI (Jul.) The latest Caixin survey suggests that factory activity remained weak last month but that downward pressure eased somewhat, painting a similar picture to the official manufacturing PMI released... 1st August 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Labour Market & Industrial Production (Jun.) While industrial production rebounded in the second quarter, we still expect GDP growth to slow. Meanwhile, we think that the labour market won’t remain as tight as it is now as subdued economic... 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico GDP (Q2, Prov.) Preliminary GDP data suggesting that Mexico escaped a technical recession by the skin of its teeth in Q2 don’t change the bigger picture that the economy remains very weak. This supports our non... 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q2), Unemp. (June) & HICP (July) The raft of weak economic data published this morning strengthens the case for the ECB to announce a package of stimulus measures at its next meeting in September. 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
China Data Response Hong Kong GDP (Q2 preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy lost momentum last quarter. Slower trade flows are more to blame for this than the recent protests, adding to downbeat signs on the health of the global economy. 31st July 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Data Response Taiwan GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Taiwan rebounded strongly last quarter, thanks mainly to a surprise acceleration in export growth. But with headwinds to the economy mounting, we don’t expect the recovery to last. 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Jul.) Consumer confidence recovered a little in July, but rising concerns about a no deal Brexit could mean that sentiment soon returns to its recent lows. 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
