Europe Data Response German GDP (Q2), E-Z Industrial Production (June) The decline in German GDP in Q2 and sharp fall in euro-zone industrial production in June provide further evidence of the severity of the slowdown in Europe. What’s more, a deteriorating global... 14th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Central & Eastern Europe GDP (Q2 2019) The strength of the Q2 GDP data for Central and Eastern Europe suggests that domestic demand continued to offset the impact of euro-zone weakness. However, there are signs that soft external demand is... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Focus The Great Asian Moderation Emerging Asia has not only been the fastest growing region since the global financial crisis, it has also been the most stable. Regional growth has also been less volatile compared with the period... 14th August 2019 · 13 mins read
China Data Response Activity & Spending (Jul.) After improving in June, economic conditions worsened across the board last month as growth in industrial production, capital spending and retail sales all dropped back. We see more weakness on the... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Japan Data Response Machinery Orders (Jun.) The surge in machinery orders in June supports our view that investment spending will continue to expand at a rapid pace in the third quarter. However, we expect a renewed drop after October’s sales... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Singapore: MAS to wait until October to ease An official from the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) today confirmed that it is not considering an unscheduled policy adjustment, but given the poor outlook for the economy loosening in October... 13th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia GDP (Q2 2019) The slightly better-than-expected 0.9% y/y rise in Russian GDP in Q2, up from 0.5% y/y in Q1, is likely to be followed by a further improvement in the second half of the year. But growth is still... 12th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update A fresh look at the Aramco IPO The planned IPO of Aramco – which reports suggest is back on – will probably make the government less inclined to impose fresh austerity measures in response to lower oil prices. The partial sale of... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw and secondary city retail trends poles apart As consumer spending growth slows in Poland, we expect retail spending to slow. The effect of this on physical retail outlets will be compounded in secondary locations by a growing share of sales... 12th August 2019 · 3 mins read
India Data Response Industrial Production (Jun.) Indian industrial production growth slowed in June, but the sector performed much better across Q2 compared to Q1. Looking ahead, recent policy moves should help to support local industry over the... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Industrial Production (Jun.) The stronger-than-expected increase in Mexican industrial production in June, of 1.1% m/m, should provide a strong carryover for Q3. But with the economy still very weak, we remain comfortable with... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Data Response GDP (Q2 First Estimate) The small contraction in GDP in Q2 throws up the spectre of a recession even before Brexit. However, almost all the weakness was because the original Brexit deadline meant that activity that would... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly Could weak ZAR, Q2 recovery keep SA rates on hold? The rand’s recent weakness against the US dollar is mostly due to domestic factors – like problems at Eskom – rather than general EM fears about the US-China trade war. Currency weakness has increased... 9th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Japan Data Response GDP (Q2 Preliminary) GDP rose more quickly than most had anticipated in the second quarter and the details were unequivocally strong. And while the economy will lose momentum after October’s sales tax hike, our view... 9th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Are we already in a global recession? We’re comfortable with our below-consensus forecast for global growth but, for now, the increasingly gloomy view priced into bond markets seems difficult to square with the latest economic data. 8th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Signs point to rebound in Q2 Despite the weak performance of the manufacturing sector, June activity data strengthened our view that South Africa returned to growth in Q2 after a sharp fall in Q1. Combined with recent currency... 8th August 2019 · 2 mins read
