RBA Watch RBA to take a breather before cutting rates further We expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to take a breather and leave rates on hold at 1.0% at its upcoming meeting on Tuesday the 6th of August following the back to back rate cuts in June and July... 31st July 2019 · 7 mins read
China Data Response Official PMIs (July) The latest surveys remain consistent with a renewed slowdown in growth. Downward pressure on factory activity eased this month, but momentum in services and construction weakened. 31st July 2019 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi economy continues to lose steam Our GDP Tracker suggests that the slowdown in Saudi Arabia’s economy at the start of this year extended into Q2 and it looks set to intensify over the rest of 2019. Our forecast for GDP growth of just... 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone EC Survey (July) & France GDP (Q2) July’s decline in the euro-zone Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) is consistent with our view that, after probably slowing to 0.2% q/q in Q2, GDP growth in the currency union will remain subdued over... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Jul.) The European Commission’s Economic Sentiment Indicators for July suggest that growth across Central and Eastern Europe held steady at a decent 3.5% y/y or so at the start of Q3. Strength in consumer... 30th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Rising chance of a recession in Sweden The decline in Swedish GDP in Q2 will make it harder for the Riksbank to sit on the fence. With the economy unlikely to find much support in H2, the rising prospect of a recession lends further... 30th July 2019 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack Falling profitability to weigh on investment The slowdown in domestic economic activity along with global trade tensions is becoming more of a concern for businesses in both countries. That means that sentiment has not been bolstered by the... 30th July 2019 · 10 mins read
US Economics Update 737 Max woes will continue to weigh on GDP growth The grounding of the Boeing 737 Max aircraft delivered a hit to business equipment investment and net exports in the second quarter, reducing annualised GDP growth by 0.25% points. A similar hit to... 29th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Spending on cars puts brakes on consumption growth Spending on cars has fallen sharply since the EU referendum, and unless a Brexit deal is agreed we suspect that it will remain a drag on consumer spending growth for a few years yet. 29th July 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Data Response Retail Sales (Jun.) Retail sales values were flat in June but broader measures of consumer spending still suggest that private consumption picked up in the second quarter. Some of that strength in Q2 was probably due to... 29th July 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Early signs that EM growth has turned the corner Having slowed sharply in Q1 and at the start of Q2, it looks like EM GDP growth strengthened a little in May and June. Even so, with China’s slowdown set to resume and the global economy more... 26th July 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Javid to loosen fiscal policy, economy has poor start to Q3 It came as no surprise that Boris Johnson became the UK’s new Prime Minister this week. And in his first speech in Parliament on Thursday there was no sign of him rowing back on his campaign pledges... 26th July 2019 · 5 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly MAS to loosen soon, Malaysia restarts rail project The recent deterioration in the economic data from Singapore adds weight to our view that monetary policy will be loosened before the central bank’s next scheduled meeting in mid-October. Meanwhile... 26th July 2019 · 7 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Treasurer unlikely to shift the goal posts The Treasurer is currently reviewing the RBA’s inflation target before he signs the Statement on the Conduct of Monetary Policy. We doubt there will be any major changes and Governor Lowe gave a... 26th July 2019 · 6 mins read
Africa Economics Update Africa: Learning to live with slower Chinese growth Growth in China is slowing, but fears of a big drag on Africa are overdone. While the Asian giant’s demand for some commodities will soften, it will remain a key trade and investment partner. Indeed... 25th July 2019 · 4 mins read
US Data Response Durable Goods & Advance Economic Indicators (Jun.) The surge in durable goods orders in June suggests that business equipment investment is holding up a bit better than we anticipated. But with the incoming global data still deteriorating and domestic... 25th July 2019 · 2 mins read
