Australia & New Zealand Economics Update The money supply is not what it used to be Growth in the money supply has picked-up in Australia but we don’t think the money supply has much of a relationship with economic activity. Even so, banks have started to ease lending standards which... 26th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly The sky isn’t falling There have been concerns that the recent inversion of the US yield curve foreshadows a global downturn but we think that the recent easing in lending standards means the probability of a recession in... 23rd August 2019 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly Corporate tax cut, Kerala floods If implemented, the corporate tax cut suggested by a government panel this week wouldn’t have a material impact on the fiscal position. But it would be indicative of a more accommodative fiscal stance... 23rd August 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Subsidies for Lost Generation, rugby spending boost The planned subsidies to encourage firms to hire more regular workers may lift wage growth a bit. Meanwhile, the upcoming Rugby World Cup could provide a welcome boost to demand as it will happen... 23rd August 2019 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs suggest no respite for manufacturing PMI surveys for August imply that growth in advanced economies has slowed further in the third quarter. But one crumb of comfort is that the weakness in manufacturing has not yet weighed much on... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Aug.) The trivial increase in the euro-zone Composite PMI in August still leaves it consistent with feeble GDP growth this quarter and won’t put the ECB off easing policy next month. 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Poland Activity Data (Jul.) The batch of Polish activity data for July suggest that strong domestic demand is offsetting weakness in export-led sectors. Our GDP Tracker suggests that growth edged just below 4% y/y at the start... 22nd August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru’s economy to shrug off political uncertainty The recent political turmoil in Peru has stoked fears about governability issues, and congressional gridlock is likely to continue in the near term. But in contrast to many other analysts, we doubt... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Global Economics Update Will the manufacturing malaise spread to services? The current global economic slowdown may descend into something more serious if manufacturing drags services down with it. Fortunately, there are reasons to think that the spillovers from the... 21st August 2019 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery in Hungarian bank lending unlikely to last The recovery in Hungarian private sector credit has been an important driver of GDP growth in recent years, but we think that the credit boom doesn’t have much further to run. 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
China Activity Monitor Recent strength unlikely to last Our China Activity Proxy (CAP) suggests that growth remained strong at the start of Q3. However, with external headwinds mounting and property development likely to moderate, economic activity looks... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Asia Economics Update The worst is now over, but growth to remain weak For all the bad news on the global economy recently, it looks as if GDP growth across Emerging Asia held broadly stable last quarter. Although growth is likely to remain fairly weak over the coming... 21st August 2019 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Russia Activity Data (Jul.) July’s Russia activity data suggest that, after recovering slightly in Q2, the economy may have lost a bit of momentum at the start of Q3. This, combined with easing inflationary pressures, will leave... 19th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Data Response Chile GDP & Current Account (Q2) The pick-up in Chilean GDP growth from 1.6% y/y in Q1 to 1.9% y/y in Q2, is likely to mark the beginning of a sustained economic recovery. While GDP growth over this year as a whole is likely to be... 19th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Asia Data Response Thailand GDP (Q2) GDP figures released today for the second quarter show that growth in Thailand slowed sharply to an almost five-year low. With weak global demand and a downturn in the tourism sector likely to drag on... 19th August 2019 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Is the UK different? Whereas US yield curve inversions are close to a fool-proof predictor of US recessions, a recession in the UK has only followed inversions in the gilt yield curve on 50% of occasions. That’s not... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
