Emerging Europe Economics Weekly A decent Q2 for the region, Turkey & market turmoil The preliminary Q2 GDP figures released this week showed that Russia staged a recovery, while strong domestic demand helped growth in Central Europe to hold up well. But the early evidence suggests... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Africa Economics Weekly More ‘Buharinomics’, signs of Q2 rebound in Nigeria, SA Despite fears to the contrary, calls this week by Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari to tighten restrictions on access to foreign currency are likely to have little effect on inflation. But they... 16th August 2019 · 6 mins read
Asia Economics Weekly Global recession fears, Indonesia to move capital city Weak data earlier this week from China and Europe and the fall in long term bond yields in the US have helped raise fears of a sharp slowdown in global economic growth. But even if the global economy... 16th August 2019 · 7 mins read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Industrial Production (Jun.) The 3.7% m/m fall in Turkish industrial production in June adds to the evidence that GDP growth in Q2 was much weaker than in Q1. Leading indicators suggest that the scale of the fall in output was... 16th August 2019 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly Foreign factories struggle, HK stimulus not enough A slump in exports by foreign firms is behind much of the recent slowdown in industrial production. While Chinese officials may appreciate the irony of foreign-owned factories being the worst hit by... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Asia Data Response Malaysia GDP (Q2) GDP growth in Malaysia picked up in Q2, but we doubt this is the start of a sustained rebound. We are forecasting a renewed slowdown in the second half of this year, driven by weaker consumer spending... 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
India Economics Weekly Key takeaways from PM Modi’s media interview In a rare media interview published this week, Prime Minister Modi discussed several economic issues. Among the key takeaways, it is clear that the government wants policy to be loosened even further... 16th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly What drove strong consumer spending in Q2? While many commentators have attributed the strength in Q2 consumer spending to purchases being brought forward ahead of the sales tax hike, we think it had more to do with the longer-than-usual... 16th August 2019 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly Outlook for labour market remains challenging The recent weakness in economic activity should start to weigh on jobs growth before long, pushing up the unemployment rate further and resulting in weaker wage growth. While a softer labour market... 16th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Latin America Data Response Colombia GDP (Q2 2019) Colombian GDP growth remained strong in Q2 at 3.0% y/y, and we’ve revised up our forecast for 2019 from 2.0% to 2.8%. But we still think that the consensus forecasts are too optimistic. 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
US Data Response Industrial Production (Jul.) The soft July industrial production data show that the manufacturing recession continued into the third quarter. But the latest surveys provide some reason for optimism and, as the retail sales data... 15th August 2019 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Downgrading our forecasts for Argentina The rout in Argentine markets is likely to push the economy back into recession. We now expect GDP to contract by 3% over this year as a whole (our previous forecast was -2.0%) and inflation to breach... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
Africa Economics Update Tanzania: Growth set to slow After picking up a touch this year, we think that economic growth in Tanzania will slow in 2020 and in 2021. President John Magufuli’s increasingly erratic policymaking will deter investment while... 15th August 2019 · 3 mins read
US Economics Update Slowdown still more likely outcome than recession We still anticipate a modest economic downturn rather than a recession, but the spreading weakness in other parts of the global economy has increased the danger of an outright economic contraction in... 14th August 2019 · 6 mins read
China Economics Update Protests to push Hong Kong into a recession Disruptions from the ongoing protests look set to pull down Hong Kong’s GDP growth to its lowest since the global financial crisis this quarter and there is a growing risk of an even worse outcome if... 14th August 2019 · 4 mins read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: Tepid recovery in Q2, rate cut still likely June retail sales figures released today added to the evidence that the economy returned to growth in Q2. But the recovery was soft – we estimate around 1.6% q/q saar – and we still think that... 14th August 2019 · 2 mins read
