Latin America Economics Update Trump’s tariffs and the implications for Mexico The 25% tariff on all US imports from Mexico that came into force today will, if it stays in place, knock Mexico’s economy into recession in the coming quarters. A contraction in GDP this year of 1%... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Canada Economics Update Tariffs risk plunging Canada into recession If the US tariffs remain in place, Canada will undoubtedly fall into recession. The limited decline in the loonie so far suggests markets are still pricing in a quick U-turn from the Trump... 4th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Unemployment (Jan. 2025) The euro-zone’s unemployment rate in January remained unchanged at its record low of 6.2% for a fourth consecutive month, but other data show that labour demand is weakening. With the economy growing... 4th March 2025 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Update Japan entering Trump’s firing line Japanese firms will suffer some collateral damage from the 25% US tariff on imports from Canada and Mexico. And if Trump presses ahead with tariffs on imports from Japan, carmakers would be most... 4th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Africa Rapid Response South Africa GDP (Q4 2024) The 0.6% q/q rebound in South Africa’s economy in the final quarter of last year came on the back of an upwardly-revised 0.1% q/q contraction in Q3 and suggests that the recovery is back on track. We... 4th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing pick-up likely to be short lived The small uptick in the EM manufacturing PMI in February appears in part to be a result of the front-running of US tariffs, and is unlikely to be sustained. For now, the surveys continue to point to... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update PMIs point to higher goods price pressures The latest PMIs suggest that global industrial activity gained some momentum in February. But with more US tariffs on manufactured goods likely to come into force in the coming months, any rebound in... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Manufacturing Index (Feb. 2025) The fall in the ISM manufacturing index in February likely marks the beginning of the end of the recent mini renaissance, as the reality of the disruption to the sector caused by tariffs (including... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Feb.) 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Feb. 2025) The PMIs suggest that a combination of fiscal support and tariff front-running helped China’s economy regain some momentum in February. But growth still looks at risk of slowing this quarter, at least... 3rd March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trumpcession? Following the 0.5% m/m slump in real consumption in January and the massive 10% m/m surge in real goods imports, we now expect first-quarter GDP to contract by 1.0% annualised. Assuming that surge in... 28th February 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Economics Weekly Canada Weekly: Bank weighing up strong GDP versus tariff threats There were mixed signals from the White House this week over whether the 25% tariffs on imports from Canada will come into effect as scheduled on March 4th. Providing that does not happen, then the... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Peace talks, gas flows & defence spending President Putin this week described Moscow’s initial contact with the Trump administration as “inspiring a certain degree of hope” and, as we explained in an in-depth piece, an end to the war with... 28th February 2025 · 7 mins read
China Chart Pack China Chart Pack (Feb. 25) We expect fiscal stimulus to keep China’s economy growing at pace over the first half of this year. But as fiscal support fades and US tariffs start to drag on exports, we think growth will start to... 28th February 2025 · 0 mins read
