Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia: sanctions relief and the economic implications The Trump administration’s efforts to end to the war in Ukraine has raised the prospect of sanctions relief for Russia. This Focus outlines the main sanctions currently in place and the macroeconomic... 20th March 2025 · 24 mins read
India Chart Pack India Chart Pack (March 2025) India’s economy is emerging from its recent soft patch. Headline CPI inflation should remain close to the RBI’s 4% target over the coming months, enabling the central bank to continue easing monetary... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SA: Industry lagging retail, but recovery to continue South Africa’s hard activity data for January show that the retail sector is steaming ahead and driving the recovery. We think the lagging industrial sector will start to catch up on the back of... 19th March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response US Industrial Production (Feb 2025) The rise in industrial production in February should further soothe concerns that the economy is on the cusp of recession. Nonetheless, with production supported by rebounds in motor vehicle and... 18th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Asia Economics Update Indonesia: equity plunge underscores policy concerns The sharp fall in Indonesia’s stock market today seems to reflect growing worries about the direction of fiscal policy and the state’s role in the economy under President Prabowo Subianto, which could... 18th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Chile GDP (Q4 2024) Growth in Chile’s economy slowed to 0.4% q/q in Q4, but more timely monthly activity data suggest that the economy headed into 2025 with more momentum. This, combined with above-target inflation... 18th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Update Peru: slowing but still a regional outperformer Peru’s economy grew strongly in 2024 but we think that a combination of domestic and external headwinds will cause growth to slow by more than most expect over the coming years. But it is still likely... 17th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Japan Economic Outlook Japan Outlook: Tightening cycle has much further to run While trade tensions create downside risks, we expect GDP growth to be around trend this year. And following another strong showing in this year’s spring wage negotiations, wage growth will remain... 17th March 2025 · 18 mins read
China Rapid Response China Activity & Spending (Jan. & Feb. 2025) China’s economy appears to have slowed last month, likely due to a pullback fiscal borrowing. We expect a renewed pick-up later this year as fiscal support ramps up again. But any near-term... 17th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Copom’s conundrum, Argentina & the IMF Figures out this week underscored the strength of inflation in Brazil, but we think the weakness in the latest economic activity might just be enough to prompt Copom to make the 100bp hike (to 14.25%)... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: The tariffs will continue until sentiment improves Comments from President Donald Trump and his cabinet members in the past week suggest that neither an economic downturn nor a severe stock market decline will deter the administration from pursuing... 14th March 2025 · 7 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada Manufacturing Sales & Wholesale Sales (Jan. 2025) The large rises in both manufacturing and wholesale sales volumes at the start of the year suggest that GDP may have done even better than the flash estimate of a 0.3% m/m rise in January, although... 14th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: How big a boost from defence? Europe’s plans to increase its defence expenditure are still evolving, but based on what we know so far, we assume that for the euro-zone as a whole it will rise by around 0.5% of GDP between 2024 and... 14th March 2025 · 5 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Three risks to the outlook The big takeaway from our India Economic Outlook published this week is that the economy appears to have bottomed out and, with the help of policy stimulus, growth should pick up further over the... 14th March 2025 · 4 mins read
