Canada Economics Weekly Exporters still face hit despite tariff exemption The US tariff exemption for USMCA-compliant goods still leaves considerable uncertainty for the economy because less than 40% of exports to the US last year were formally USMCA compliant. The share... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Trump tariff push descends into farce Markets reacted badly this week when President Donald Trump once again flip-flopped on imposing tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico. That's two U-turns in a month. It remains to be seen whether... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: German stimulus spillovers, Ukraine aid pause The prospective fiscal stimulus announced in Germany this week could provide some support to nearby trade dependent economies in Central and Eastern Europe. But with a large part of the spending... 7th March 2025 · 7 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: Q1 fiscal tightening to reverse before long While the annual budget presented at the NPC implies an acceleration in fiscal expenditure this year, early signs are that spending has slowed in Q1, weighing on economic activity. Fiscal spending... 7th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Fiscal policy and the ECB This week has brought a fundamental shift in Europe’s approach to defence spending and fiscal policy more generally. While there are reasons to be cautious about the boost that this will provide to... 7th March 2025 · 9 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Brazil GDP (Q4 2024) The sharp slowdown in Brazil’s GDP growth, to just 0.2% q/q, in the final quarter of last year confirms that the economy’s recent period of strong growth has come to an abrupt end. We now think the... 7th March 2025 · 2 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Tariffs, trade talks and Tesla President Trump had some stern words on India's tariff policy this week. But the Trump administration’s stance on India seems different from its approach to other countries: it seems focused on... 7th March 2025 · 5 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: Australian consumer in a soft patch, RBNZ’s Orr exits Australian national accounts data showed that private consumption growth edged up only modestly in Q4. What's more, timely data suggest that it could actually soften again this quarter. However... 7th March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Update ECB not done cutting yet Alongside today’s decision to cut the deposit rate from 2.75% to 2.50%, the ECB adjusted its messaging to signal that the outlook for monetary policy has become less clear. We still think that the... 6th March 2025 · 3 mins read
China Economics Focus China's economic roadmap for 2025 The GDP target announced for 2025 suggests that policymakers are hoping to achieve steady growth this year, but we don’t think that the policy agenda set out today at the National People’s Congress... 5th March 2025 · 28 mins read
UK Economics Chart Pack UK Economics Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) While the 0.1% q/q rise in GDP in Q4 of last year was stronger than we and most other forecasters expected, the combination of higher taxes for businesses announced in last October’s Budget, a... 5th March 2025 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update MENA PMI’s point to a softer start to 2025 February’s batch of PMIs across the Gulf were generally softer and we think that non-hydrocarbon sectors in the Gulf will record weaker growth this year. In contrast, Egypt’s economy appears to be... 5th March 2025 · 2 mins read
US Rapid Response US ISM Services Index (Feb. 2025) After the slew of weaker activity and survey data in recent weeks, the small rise in the ISM services index in February should provide some reassurance that the floor is not falling from under the... 5th March 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Germany loosens the purse strings The agreement on a reform of the national fiscal rule reached by Germany’s likely next coalition partners suggests they will implement a significant fiscal stimulus of perhaps around 1% to 2% of GDP... 5th March 2025 · 5 mins read
China Rapid Response Initial thoughts on China’s NPC Chinese policymakers have stuck with an ambitious target for real GDP growth but have become more cautious on the outlook for nominal growth and inflation. And while they did deliver some increase in... 5th March 2025 · 4 mins read
