Latin America Chart Pack

Latin America Chart Pack (October 2024)

Our Latin America Economics Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. Latin American financial assets have come under pressure amid the recent rise in...

30th October 2024 · 1 min read

RBA Watch

RBA still on course to cut rates by February

The Reserve Bank of Australia is all but certain to leave rates unchanged at its meeting next week. We suspect it will reiterate its pledge to hold its fire until year-end, given that the labour...

30th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary & Czechia GDP (Q3)

The weaker-than-expected Q3 GDP data out of Central Europe, which showed that the Hungarian economy slipped back into recession last quarter, suggests that stagnating demand from the euro-zone is...

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

France and Spain GDP (Q3 2024)

Third quarter GDP data reported so far suggest that the aggregate euro-zone growth rate will be a little higher than we had forecast in Q3, but the big picture is that, the Olympics and Spain aside...

30th October 2024 · 2 mins read

China Activity Monitor

CAP: Financial sector drives a strong expansion

Our China Activity Proxy suggests that the economy’s growth picked up in September, bringing Q3 growth in-line with official estimates. While this acceleration was broad-based across sectors, the main...

29th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Latin America Economics Update

How would a collapse of USMCA affect Mexico?

A key risk for Mexico from the US election is that a Trump administration could withdraw from the USMCA free-trade agreement. In a plausible scenario in which Mexico were to face a universal import...

29th October 2024 · 6 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Sweden GDP (Q3)

Preliminary data show that Sweden’s economy contracted by 0.1% q/q in the third quarter, far below the consensus expectation and the Riksbank’s forecasts (0.5% and 0.2% respectively). At face value...

29th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Australia & New Zealand Chart Pack

ANZ Chart Pack (Oct. 2024)

Our ANZ Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The Antipodean central banks will tread different paths on policy over the forecast horizon. With the...

29th October 2024 · 1 min read

Europe Economics Update

ECB to cut deposit rate to just 1.5%

In light of the worsening outlook for economic growth and inflation in the euro-zone, we are making major downward revisions to our ECB interest rate forecast. We now think the Bank will implement...

28th October 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

Poland’s retail sales shocker, BRICS and the dollar

The substantial drop in Polish retail sales in September has been interpreted by some analysts as evidence that the engine of the economy is beginning to fail, but we think that these fears are...

25th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Canada Economics Weekly

New immigration targets a headache for the Bank

Alongside its decision to cut interest rates by a larger 50bp this week, the Bank of Canada outlined a set of positive economic forecasts, partly because it expects residential investment growth to...

25th October 2024 · 6 mins read

US Rapid Response

Durable Goods Orders (Sep. 2024)

While the fall in durable goods orders in September was mostly due to the volatile transportation components, the decline in underlying capital goods shipments will still drag on business equipment...

25th October 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

ECB’s dovish shift, euro heading for parity?

ECB policymakers were out in force at the IMF meetings in Washington this week and many seemed willing to contemplate a 50bp rate cut in December. We now think that is the most likely decision and...

25th October 2024 · 11 mins read

China Economics Weekly

Date set for fiscal reveal, stock frenzy boosting GDP

The details of a widely anticipated fiscal stimulus package are expected to be revealed at the NPC Standing Committee’s next meeting, which has just been scheduled for 4th to 8th November. This...

25th October 2024 · 7 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Ifo Survey (October 2024)

The rise in the Ifo Business Climate Index in October still left it deep in recessionary territory. With growth in the rest of the euro-zone also weak, we now expect the ECB to cut its deposit rate by...

25th October 2024 · 2 mins read