China Activity Monitor CAP: Weak start to the year for China’s economy Our China Activity Proxy suggests that China’s economy slowed over January and February, driven by a sharp slowdown in services sector growth. Fiscal expenditure is set to pick up over the coming... 24th March 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Mar. 2025) With the downside risks on activity shrinking and high price pressures being sustained, the Bank of England is probably becoming increasingly likely to pause interest rate cuts. 24th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (March 2025) February’s Flash Composite PMI provides more evidence that, after expanding by only 0.1% in Q4, the euro-zone economy remains all but stagnant in Q1. 24th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economic Outlook ANZ Outlook: RBA will cut less aggressively than RBNZ Both Antipodean economies seem to have turned a corner at the end of last year, and we expect the recoveries to gather momentum in the coming quarters. Given the tight labour market and elevated... 25th March 2025 · 20 mins read
Asia Economics Update Korea’s poor demographics are not destiny just yet While Korea’s productivity growth has slowed, this has been offset by faster employment growth as more women and elderly have entered the labour market. If that trend continues and productivity growth... 24th March 2025 · 3 mins read
US Economics Weekly US Weekly: Fed operating in the dark The Fed is struggling to provide forward guidance without clear policy direction from the new administration. Even though rate-setters expect core PCE inflation to end the year at close to 3%, the... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: China’s 10-year yields to fall below Japan’s We expect Chinese 10-year government bond yields to fall below 10-year Japanese government bond yields this year, for the first time since Chinese bond prices became market determined. While this... 21st March 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: New, higher growth forecasts Optimism about the euro-zone economy has risen markedly in recent weeks and we have revised our GDP growth forecasts up. We now think the economy will grow by 0.9% this year, 1.2% in 2026 and 1.0% in... 21st March 2025 · 6 mins read
Global Economics Chart Pack Global Economics Chart Pack (March 2025) The latest data suggest that the world economy has made a relatively weak start to 2025. Activity in China has been soft so far this year amid a pullback in fiscal spending, while a surge in US... 21st March 2025 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Emerging Europe Weekly: Turkey fallout, Polish rate outlook The arrest of a leading opposition politician in Turkey on Wednesday has triggered a major sell-off in the country’s stock market and currency – which has continued today – and serves as a stark... 21st March 2025 · 7 mins read
Europe Economic Outlook Europe Outlook: Zeitenwende! The euro-zone will get a boost from Germany’s decision to ditch its fiscal rules and ramp up defence spending, as well as the relaxation of the EU’s budget rules. But governments other than Germany... 21st March 2025 · 28 mins read
Europe Economics Update Norges Bank to become more hawkish Norges Bank signalled in January that a rate cut was likely at its meeting next week, but we now think it will leave the policy rate unchanged at 4.5%. While we still suspect that it will lower... 20th March 2025 · 3 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly MENA Weekly: Kuwait debt law, Morocco interest rates, ceasefire ends Kuwait’s new public debt law is likely to be passed soon and should allow for a looser fiscal stance, something that shouldn’t raise any concerns given the debt-to-GDP ratio is less than 5%. Elsewhere... 20th March 2025 · 6 mins read
Latin America Economic Outlook Latin America Outlook: Tariffs not the only headwind Mexico is one of the most vulnerable countries to US import tariffs and, at best, the economy will just about eke out positive growth this year. More sweeping tariffs than we have embedded in our... 20th March 2025 · 21 mins read
US Chart Pack US Chart Pack (Mar. 2025) A large drag from net trade will likely tip GDP growth into negative territory this quarter but we should see a rebound in Q2. Nonetheless, we expect quarterly growth to be weaker this year on average... 20th March 2025 · 1 min read
