Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly RBA to cut rates in Q1 as capacity pressures ease Financial markets continued to scale back their expectations for rate cuts by the RBA following the release of Q3 CPI data this week. As a result, t hey are now fully pricing in a rate cut only in May... 1st November 2024 · 5 mins read
Canada Economics Focus What does a declining population mean for Canada? The government’s plan to trim the population will hit potential GDP growth and, given the headwinds for residential investment, reduce the chance of GDP reaching that lower potential level. Rents on... 31st October 2024 · 15 mins read
Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Aug.) The unchanged level of GDP in August and downgrade to July puts third-quarter growth on track to sharply undershoot the Bank of Canada’s estimate of 1.5%. That provides some support to our view that... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Our Emerging Europe Chart Pack has been updated with the latest data and our analysis of recent developments. The latest activity data out of Emerging Europe have been surprisingly weak, and GDP... 31st October 2024 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa Chart Pack (Oct. 2024) Disinflation and looser monetary policy are setting the scene for stronger growth across Sub-Saharan Africa, and we expect growth to pick up in the coming quarters. But there are several headwinds... 31st October 2024 · 0 mins read
China Rapid Response Hong Kong GDP (Q3 Preliminary) Hong Kong’s economy contracted sharply in Q3. GDP surprised significantly to the downside, with growth of 0.4% q/q in Q2 more than reversed by a 1.1% q/q fall in Q3 (Bloomberg median: +0.2%, CE: -0.2%... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Middle East & North Africa Rapid Response Saudi Arabia GDP (Q3 ’24, Flash Estimate) The 0.8% q/q rise in Saudi GDP in Q3 is likely to be followed by further steady increases, but growth will be driven increasingly by higher oil output while there are signs that the non-oil sector is... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Asia Rapid Response Taiwan GDP (Q3, first estimate) Taiwan’s economy rebounded in Q3, and we expect GDP growth to remain fairly strong over the coming quarters, helped by robust export demand. 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
China Rapid Response China PMIs (Oct. 2024) The PMIs have overstated the weakness in China’s economy during the past year. But they still provide some sense of the direction of travel. The good news is that the surveys point to an improvement... 31st October 2024 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Rapid Response Australia Retail Sales (Sep. 2024) Although real retail sales saw a healthy pickup in Q3, there are reasons to suspect the data are overstating the momentum behind overall household consumption. That being the case, policy implications... 31st October 2024 · 2 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Industrial Production & Retail Sales (Sep. 24) 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Activity Data (Sep.) The latest Russian industrial production and retail sales figures for September were a bit stronger than expected, although GDP growth still probably slowed over Q3 as a whole towards 3.0% y/y. 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Godongwana talks up growth, but austerity is order of the day The South African Medium-Term Budget Policy Statement (MTBPS) was presented as a “pro-growth” statement, but the numbers underscore that the government has no room to loosen the fiscal stance... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
US Rapid Response GDP (Q3) Despite earlier fears that the US economy was headed for recession, growth continued to out-perform other DMs. Third-quarter GDP growth came in at a solid 2.8% annualised, down only trivially from the... 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Latin America Rapid Response Mexico GDP (Q3 Provisional) The stronger-than-expected 1.0% q/q expansion in Mexico’s economy in Q3 confirms that the economy pulled out of the slump seen in the first half of the year last quarter. We still think the conditions... 30th October 2024 · 2 mins read
Africa Economics Update Mozambique’s instability heightens default risks The outbreak of unrest in Mozambique after contested elections is unlikely to have a large impact on growth in the near term. But any attempts by the government to loosen fiscal policy to appease... 30th October 2024 · 3 mins read
