Canada Rapid Response Canada GDP (Q4 2024 and Dec) The 2.6% annualised gain in GDP last quarter was much stronger than the Bank of Canada’s forecast for a 1.8% increase and was accompanied by sizeable upward revisions to data in previous quarters... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
China Economics Weekly China Weekly: What to watch at the NPC The annual meeting of China’s parliament will open on Wednesday with the delivery of the Work Report and annual budget. While the GDP growth target usually receives the most attention, we don't think... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly Europe Weekly: Germany defence fund, ECB cuts The special fund for defence proposed by Germany’s presumptive next Chancellor Friedrich Merz would secure funding for defence spending to rise from 2% of GDP to 3.5% and make budget negotiations a... 28th February 2025 · 9 mins read
India Economics Weekly India Weekly: Tariff manoeuvres, RBI shifts priorities, the long-run view The formation of a committee to assess the scope of possible tariff reductions is another sign that PM Modi is seeking to make concessions to President Trump in order to avoid being hit hard by... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Latin America Economics Weekly Latin America Weekly: Another week of tariff threats, Brazil’s slowdown Mexico's government has pulled out all the stops to stave off the 25% US import tariff that is scheduled to come into effect next Tuesday and another 11th hour deal remains a possibility. But if the... 28th February 2025 · 6 mins read
India Rapid Response India GDP (Q4 2024) GDP figures for Q4 2024 show that India’s economy remained fairly soft by its own standards at the end of last year. But with policy now decisively turning more supportive, economic growth should pick... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey GDP (Q4 2024) The strong 1.7% q/q expansion in the Turkish economy in Q4 appears like a setback to the central bank’s efforts to bring down high inflation, but we don’t think this data is enough to throw the... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Japan Economics Weekly Japan Weekly: Demographic crisis worsening as births keep falling Japan is now recording more than twice as many deaths as births, with that ratio only surpassed in war-ravaged Ukraine and celibate Holy See. While the number of employed people nonetheless hit a... 28th February 2025 · 4 mins read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly ANZ Weekly: RBA won’t drop its guard just yet At first glance, data released this week should give the RBA greater confidence that it has brought price pressures under control. Both headline and underlying inflation remained within the Bank's 2-3... 28th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Japan Rapid Response Japan Retail Sales & Industrial Production (Jan. 25) & Tokyo CPI (Feb. 25) The January activity data suggest that GDP will have fallen this quarter, but that would follow strong gains in previous quarters. With inflation set to overshoot the Bank of Japan’s forecasts, we... 28th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Russia & Ukraine: mapping out a post-war future An end to the war in Ukraine would fundamentally change the economic outlook for Russia and Ukraine, but a lot would depend on the nature of any peace agreement. A deal that involves large-scale... 27th February 2025 · 26 mins read
ECB Watch ECB Watch: Moving from unanimity to dissent at the ECB The ECB looks very likely to reduce interest rates by 25bp next week, taking the deposit rate to 2.50%, but this will probably be the last “no-brainer” cut for some time. We expect the Bank to drop... 27th February 2025 · 8 mins read
US Rapid Response US Durable Goods Orders (Jan. 2025) The increase in durable goods orders in January was due to the volatile transport component, while core orders were unchanged. Although underlying capital goods shipments fell, business investment... 27th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Global Economics Update Could uncertainty weigh on the global economy? Instead of clearing up the uncertainty about the direction of US economic policy, Donald Trump’s victory in last November’s presidential election has only magnified it, with threats of massive... 27th February 2025 · 5 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response CEE Economic Sentiment Indicators (Feb.) The European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicators for Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) suggest that regional growth may hold up a little better than we had been expecting in Q1. That said, firms... 27th February 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (February 2025) Surveys so far this year, including today’s EC survey for February, suggest the economy remains very weak while inflationary pressures are still somewhat elevated. While the ESI did increase in... 27th February 2025 · 1 min read
