Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian easing cycle at an end The deterioration in the inflation outlook and concerns about triggering a sell-off in the currency caused the National Bank of Romania to bring its easing cycle to an end. But, barring a sharp fall... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Spike in agricultural prices unlikely to drive up EM inflation A spike in global agricultural commodity prices has raised concerns that the current period of subdued inflation in the emerging world could be nearing an end. But the recent increases still leave... 28th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Low inflation to keep Czech monetary policy loose The weakness of Czech inflation prompted the National Bank’s MPC to strike a slightly more dovish tone at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference. The strengthening economic recovery means... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF deal brings Ukraine back from the brink This morning’s announcement by the IMF that it has reached a staff level agreement to provide financial support to Ukraine of $14-18bn reduces the risk of a balance of payments crisis and a default on... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor BRIC economies continue to underperform Growth across the emerging world appears to have remained unchanged at around 4.5% y/y at the start of this year. The recovery in Emerging Europe has faltered, but this was largely due to the weakness... 27th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does the strong outlook for Poland imply for property values? We believe that the outlook for occupier demand and rental values in Poland is among the best in Europe. But much of that good news already seems to be reflected in Polish yields which are low. Thus... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Crisis in Crimea takes its toll on Russia The escalation of the crisis on the Crimean peninsula is already taking a toll on Russia. The economy was doing little more than stagnate even before geopolitical tensions flared up. And large scale... 26th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Further rate cuts in Hungary now look unlikely Following the cut in interest rates in Hungary earlier today, the MPC gave the clearest signal yet that the easing cycle has come to an end. Policymakers did not completely close the door on further... 25th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets suffer as Ukraine crisis deepens Russia’s financial markets have posted heavy losses following the escalation of the crisis on the Crimean peninsula. Indeed, Russia’s stock market and the ruble have been the worst performers among... 24th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Ukraine crisis is a far bigger threat to Russia than the West The crisis in Ukraine still has the potential to have a significant impact on the European economy and global financial markets. Nonetheless, the most likely outcome appears to be a limited exchange... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Weaker domestic demand driving fragile five’s external positions At an aggregate level, the current account deficit of the “fragile five” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, South Africa and Turkey) showed a welcome improvement towards the end of last year. But progress has... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Winners and losers from the ruble’s fall The sharp fall in the ruble over the past few months is unlikely to have a major impact on Russia’s economy as a whole, but it will create winners and losers within the economy. The government is... 21st March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does buoyant Hungarian sentiment imply for property? Buoyant economic sentiment in Hungary may overstate the underlying health of the domestic economy. We would not be surprised if sentiment and GDP growth cooled later this year. Nevertheless... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Five reasons why Poland will shine Having emerged from the global financial crisis in surprisingly robust health, Poland’s economy slowed sharply in 2012-13. Nonetheless, growth has started to pick up more recently and, as we explain... 20th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack China fears resurface Worries about the impact on other emerging economies of a slowdown in China have risen back to the top of the agenda over the past month. While we do not believe a hard landing is likely, we do expect... 19th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary conditions to remain tight The Turkish central bank left interest rates on hold today, but the bigger picture is that high inflation and a large current account deficit mean that policymakers will have to keep monetary... 18th March 2014 · 1 min read
