Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary’s central bank could still cut interest rates further Having lowered interest rates by a little more than the market expected today, the Hungarian central bank’s post-meeting communiqué (unusually) didn’t give much away about the outlook for monetary... 18th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update What next for “frontier” currencies? “Frontier” currencies have been the hardest hit in the latest bout of EM financial market turmoil. Looking ahead, we think further exchange rate weakness is likely to be concentrated in those... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Uneven recovery in lending conditions Our latest Banking Heat Map shows that lending conditions are diverging across the region. Credit growth is gathering pace in countries with healthier banking sectors, such as the Czech Republic... 17th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central Bank of Russia keeps one eye on the ruble The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) left interest rates on hold today but signalled that it was ready to tighten policy if there were signs that the recent fall in the ruble was fuelling inflation... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 GDP data show recovery gathering steam This morning’s raft of flash Q4 GDP estimates from Central and South Eastern Europe was, for the most part, stronger than our above-consensus forecasts and suggests that growth in Emerging Europe as a... 14th February 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Chart Pack Property yields continue to edge lower Investment demand for commercial property in 2013 as a whole was relatively strong in the UK and Emerging Europe. But it weakened in Scandinavia, despite signs of improving economic fundamentals and... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Current account deficits narrow, Turkey an outlier Turkey’s current account deficit widened sharply at the end of last year, but the recent tightening of monetary policy means it could now start to narrow substantially. Elsewhere in the region... 13th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus How and why Russia needs to reform The need for economic reform in Russia is now widely accepted. However, a key point that is often overlooked is that a comprehensive programme of reform that takes in a wide range of different areas... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM exports picking up, but recovery uneven Surprisingly strong export growth from China last month has raised hopes of a broader recovery in EM exports. However, the country level data suggest that export performances are highly uneven, with... 12th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q4 GDP data likely to point to strengthening recovery The raft of Q4 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe due later this month is likely to show that large parts of the region are on the mend, with Poland now the region’s star performer. We will... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will the BRICs embrace economic reforms? The recent slowdown in the major BRIC economies has been driven largely by structural factors, meaning that a new wave of reforms is needed if they are to regain their vigour. But, as things stand... 10th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Is Turkey flirting with recession? It’s too soon to fully gauge what impact the recent financial market turmoil and sharp rise in interest rates might have on Turkish growth. But at first glance, there seems to be a real risk that the... 7th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech Bank hints at end to FX intervention in early 2015 Following today’s Czech rate-setting meeting, Governor Singer commented that the MPC could end its policy of FX intervention to weaken the koruna by early next year. With the economy recovering and... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Manufacturing PMIs highlight EM divergence Emerging market (EM) manufacturing appears to have slowed last month but, perhaps more importantly, there is a widening divergence between countries. Activity seems to be picking up in the more open... 6th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for the hryvnia? The hryvnia has fallen sharply over the past few days, reaching 9/$ earlier today, its lowest level since 2009. We estimate that the currency needs to fall by a further 15% or so, to around 11/$, in... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Central Europe – where are the prospects for industrial rents brightest? The recent surge in industrial confidence in Hungary increases the upside risks around our forecasts for industrial rental value growth. But after taking account of existing spare capacity, the... 5th February 2014 · 1 min read
