Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian outflows could total $70bn in Q1 We estimate that net private sector outflows of capital from Russia have totalled $50bn since the start of the year – equivalent to 2.5% of GDP. What’s more, if the current pace of capital flight... 17th March 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Are markets complacent about Ukraine? Given the twin threats from worries about a “hard landing” in China and the crisis in Ukraine, it is perhaps surprising that global equities have not already fallen more than they have. We think that... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update A primer on frontier markets Having been the darling of international investors over the past couple of years, a number of “frontier markets” have been cast in a negative light recently. In this Update, we take a step back to... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s “temporary” rate hike to be longer-lasting Having hiked interest rates at an unscheduled meeting earlier this month, it was always likely that the Central Bank of Russia would leave them unchanged at today’s (scheduled) Board meeting... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What do elections in Hungary and Turkey hold in store? Ruling parties look set to win handsomely in parliamentary elections in Hungary and local elections in Turkey in the coming weeks. However, while the outcomes may be foregone conclusions, both... 14th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update China fears resurface The past few days have seen renewed fears of a hard landing in China ripple through EM financial markets. These fears are nothing new and have in fact resurfaced at a time when EM export growth to... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update How healthy is the outlook for the Czech investment market? The 80% rise in Czech investment volumes in 2013 was more than double the average recorded across the CEE region as a whole. But the underlying trend is far weaker than the headline numbers suggest... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How vulnerable is Russia’s economy to Western sanctions? The direct economic impact of the sanctions that have apparently been agreed by Western governments on Russia is likely to be limited. But the indirect impact – including the anticipation of further... 13th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Ukraine crisis clouds outlook, but Central Europe recovering The crisis in Ukraine has unsettled the markets, but the economic fallout should be contained to the two countries directly involved – Ukraine and Russia. Ukraine is by far the more fragile of the two... 12th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s banks still the economy’s weakest link It looks like Ukraine’s banking sector has withstood the political crisis in better shape than we had feared. Credit conditions are likely to tighten sharply over the coming months, but a messier... 11th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Manufacturers outperforming Export growth was more or less flat at an EM-wide level in January, but there’s a growing divergence at a country level, with highly-open manufacturing economies in Central Europe and East Asia... 10th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Domestic demand joining the recovery The breakdown of Q4 GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe shows that, while exports remain the main driver of growth in the region, domestic demand is coming out of its recent slump. 6th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC extends "forward guidance" While the National Bank of Poland pledged to keep interest rates unchanged until at least the end of Q3 this afternoon, we think that the weakness of inflation should allow the MPC to leave interest... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital values on course for steady gains We have not made material changes to the majority of our economic forecasts since our previous Analyst. Nevertheless, we have edged up our forecasts for capital value growth in a number of non-euro... 5th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging European manufacturers lead the way Emerging market (EM) manufacturing appears to have lost some momentum last month. But while manufacturing PMIs have slumped in both Emerging Asia and Latin America, manufacturers in Emerging Europe... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine crisis a political, not economic, crisis for CEE The economies of Central and Eastern European are the most exposed to spillovers from the crisis in Ukraine, but as things stand the economic impact is likely to be limited. Admittedly, the crisis has... 4th March 2014 · 1 min read
