Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: muddling through, for now The early signs suggest that Turkey’s economy has emerged from this summer’s turbulence in financial markets relatively unscathed. Nonetheless, while GDP growth appears to have held up, it has been... 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation likely to remain in check Emerging market (EM) inflation has been fairly stable in recent months. It edged up in September but there is little reason to think that a sharp acceleration is in the offing. 24th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is Polish property at a turning point? Recent data pointing to a sharp upturn in the Polish economy bode well for a gentle recovery in retail and industrial capital values in 2014. But the office market faces rising vacancy rates and a... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish monetary conditions likely to remain tight The decision by the Turkish central bank to keep interest rates on hold today reflects the stabilisation of capital inflows and the strengthening of the lira over the past couple of months. But... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q4 2013) Consumer spending growth appears to have picked up in large parts of the emerging world over the past couple of quarters but Emerging Asia has bucked the trend and spending growth there has continued... 23rd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Is a debt problem brewing in emerging markets? Having been spectators to the credit crisis that has gripped the developed world since 2008, debt problems now seem to be building in several major EMs. There are good reasons to think that the... 22nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update External positions a concern not just for “BIITS” The currencies of the so-called “BIITS” (Brazil, India, Indonesia, Turkey and South Africa) have been singled out as being particularly vulnerable to a tightening of global monetary conditions. This... 21st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Calm returns, for now The past month has brought signs of stabilisation across the emerging world. EM financial markets largely shrugged off concerns over a possible US default and regained some of their lost ground... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Economic recovery remains uneven The latest economic data from Emerging Europe shows that, while growth in the region as a whole is accelerating, the recovery remains extremely uneven. In Poland, GDP growth seems to have picked up... 17th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Inflation to stay low even as growth recovers Inflation in Central and South Eastern Europe slowed to a record low in September and is likely to remain subdued throughout 2014, even as growth recovers. This in turn should mean that monetary... 16th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Why BRICs weakness is here to stay The IMF has downgraded its expectations for growth in the BRICS over the next couple of years, bringing its forecasts into line with our own. But while at face value the Fund expects growth to rebound... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Light at the end of the austerity tunnel While the economic challenges facing Russia and Turkey are growing, we're becoming increasingly optimistic about the outlook for the rest of Emerging Europe. The pick-up in growth in recent months has... 15th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank allows the dust to settle Having introduced an entirely new benchmark interest rate at its last meeting and unveiled new lending facilities at each of its two meetings prior to that, the Central Bank of Russia opted to do... 14th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor Continued recovery in EM trade The most recent Emerging Market (EM) trade data show that export growth maintained its upward trend in August. Forward-looking indicators point to further gains over the year ahead. 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine’s banks still vulnerable, but new crisis now less likely Ukraine’s banks have substantially decreased their external vulnerabilities over the past few years, meaning that they are now better placed to withstand a modest hryvnia devaluation and/or a slowdown... 11th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update US default would put familiar faces back in the firing line A default by the US government would be without precedent and the potential spillovers to emerging markets are unclear. Nonetheless, it seems likely that the same EMs that were hit during the summer... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
