Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC raises prospect of ending “forward guidance” The Polish MPC hinted at today’s post-meeting press conference that it may not extend its pledge to leave interest rates unchanged beyond Q3. While this could be interpreted as a sign that the MPC is... 7th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romanian monetary policy to remain loose for prolonged period With inflation in Romania set to rise over the second half of this year, it seems unlikely that there will be further interest rate cuts. But equally, large amounts of spare capacity in the economy... 6th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in Polish PMI may overstate impact of Ukraine crisis The surprising fall in Poland’s manufacturing PMI last month could be interpreted as a sign that the crisis in Ukraine is taking its toll on Central and Eastern Europe. However, we would be cautious... 2nd May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update IMF approves Ukraine deal, but enormous challenges remain The approval by the IMF of its $17bn financial support package for Ukraine is likely to ease concerns that the economy could suffer a near-term crisis, but severe challenges remain. The short-term... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update What does high Czech consumer confidence imply for retail property? Czech consumer confidence hit a six-year high in April. Yet the labour market is still weak and the recent strong pace of growth in retail sales may overstate the underlying health of consumer demand... 1st May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Recovery in Emerging Europe picks up pace, but others struggle Although growth has remained roughly unchanged across the emerging world as a whole over the past few months, there are some stark differences in performance across regions. In particular, growth in... 30th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update National Bank of Hungary keeps its options open Having cut its benchmark interest rate earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary appears to be keeping all its options open regarding future movements in the policy rate. For what it’s worth, we... 29th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Six questions and answers on the Ukraine crisis We have already written extensively on the crisis in Ukraine and its potential economic and market impacts. (The most relevant publications are listed on page 2.) But as the crisis is back in the... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus The Ukraine crisis and Russia: five key questions With Russia facing further sanctions from the West over its alleged involvement in the turmoil in the east of Ukraine, in this Focus we answer five key questions about the potential economic and... 28th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s central bank surprises markets with a rate hike An acceleration in inflation, in part due to the recent sharp drop in the ruble, caused Russia’s central bank to hike interest rates by 50bp today. Looking ahead, with inflation likely to remain high... 25th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Investors flee China’s equity market Net selling by global ETFs and mutual funds dedicated to investing in equities in China was larger in March than in any other month on record according to EPFR Global. This presumably reflected... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is an El Niño a risk to EM inflation? The current period of subdued inflation in the emerging world shows no signs of nearing an end. One possible risk to the outlook is an El Niño, which weather forecasters warn could be on its way, and... 24th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Unrest in east Ukraine has limited effect on markets Financial markets across Emerging Europe have proved relatively resilient to the recent escalation in political unrest in eastern Ukraine. But at the same time, the recovery from the losses earlier in... 23rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy appears to have contracted in Q1 March’s activity data show that although the crisis in Ukraine and the first round of Western sanctions have not caused Russia’s economy to collapse, annual growth has still slowed substantially and... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Ukraine crisis having limited impact on EMs The crisis in Ukraine has so far had only a small impact on most emerging markets. Although EM equities have fallen in recent days as the crisis has intensified, they have still risen over the past... 17th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q2 2014) There are signs that the decline in EM consumer spending growth experienced in 2013 has bottomed out in recent months, with several economies reporting stronger retail sales figures since the turn of... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
