Emerging Europe Economics Update Counting the economic costs of the Ukraine crisis for Russia Although financial markets in Russia have tumbled today, the immediate fallout from the Ukraine crisis for Russia’s economy might well be less severe than many fear. Nonetheless, with growth already... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Central European manufacturers leading the recovery February’s PMIs show that manufacturing in Emerging Europe continued to strengthen. Poland and the Czech Republic are leading the way and, encouragingly, the PMI components suggest that domestic... 3rd March 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking stock of the recent drop in the ruble Events in Ukraine have been one factor behind the fall in the Russian ruble, but domestic problems have played a role too. The central bank (CBR) has already voiced its concern that exchange rate... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor Asia slows as Emerging Europe recovers EM GDP growth has remained stable at around 4.5% y/y in recent months, but this has masked a shift in the fortunes for individual regions. Emerging Europe appears to be experiencing a relatively... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish recovery driven by domestic demand The breakdown of Polish Q4 GDP data confirmed that the recovery at the end of last year was driven by improving household consumption. Looking ahead, we expect growth to strengthen over the coming... 28th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update First thoughts on the economic fallout from Ukraine’s unrest It’s difficult to gauge the immediate impact of recent developments in Ukraine on the economy, but historical evidence from similar instances of unrest and political transition suggests that GDP... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update EM inflation remains subdued despite currency weakness In aggreate terms, there is little sign that currency weakness is leading to higher emerging market (EM) inflation. With few signs of a build-up in domestic price pressures either, we expect EM... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is a downturn looming for Turkish retail property? Reflecting the recent hike in official interest rates, credit growth and consumer spending in Turkey are vulnerable to a slowdown. In turn, and given that rents are high while yields are low, there is... 27th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update How much financial support does Ukraine need? As Ukraine’s political transition progresses, attention has turned to the urgent need for external assistance in order to avoid a balance of payments crisis and possibly even a default on its external... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Industrial data point to diverging growth paths Industry in the highly-open economies of Central Europe has gathered steam in recent months, with output expanding by as much as 6-7% y/y. Manufacturers have been supported by the strengthening of the... 26th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update It’s the institutions, stupid The eruption of anti-government protests in several emerging economies over the past month has led many investors to add “political risk” to the lengthening list of reasons to be cautious on EMs. But... 25th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What next for Ukraine? It goes without saying that, with events in Ukraine in an almost constant state of flux, predicting what might happen next is close to impossible. In this Update we outline four factors that will be... 24th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine's political crisis takes a heavy toll on the markets Ukraine’s bond market has been pummelled following the escalation of the political crisis in recent days. And the hryvnia has continued to weaken. Elsewhere, Russian and Hungarian assets have... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM world is facing a difficult year The EM recovery is still struggling for momentum, with our GDP tracker suggesting that the upturn in growth seen in mid-2013 may have stalled. On the positive side, it seems unlikely that the most... 20th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy still stagnating Russia’s economy slowed further at the start of this year, with output now doing little more than stagnating in year-on-year terms. Nonetheless, the sharp drop in the ruble over the past few weeks has... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Which EMs are succeeding with the reform challenge? In contrast to the BRICs, where economic growth is likely to disappoint without structural reform, there are parts of the emerging world where recent economic reforms should provide a major boost to... 19th February 2014 · 1 min read
