Emerging Markets Economics Update US default would put familiar faces back in the firing line A default by the US government would be without precedent and the potential spillovers to emerging markets are unclear. Nonetheless, it seems likely that the same EMs that were hit during the summer... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Should we worry about Turkey’s shopping centre pipeline? Over the next 18 months, Turkey’s shopping centre market faces a 20% rise in supply. Yet unlike 2008 and 2011, when supply rose by a similar margin, occupier market fundamentals should prove more... 10th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s slowdown starting to hit public finances The slump in Russia’s economy over the past year is starting to weigh on its public finances. The deterioration has so far been fairly modest and the fiscal position looks manageable for now. But the... 9th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Weak growth but no crisis Financial markets have awakened to the vulnerabilities in the emerging world. These are real and will weigh on growth in the years ahead. But we believe that the doomsayers will be proved wrong – an... 8th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Taking the long view The tendency of most forecasters (including ourselves) to focus on the growth prospects for Emerging Europe over a one or two year horizon means that the region’s medium-term growth potential is often... 7th October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish rates likely to remain on hold for a prolonged period With Poland’s economy now picking up, attention is turning to when monetary policy might start to be tightened. The financial markets are pricing in a first rate hike in Q1 of next year. However, we... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery continues, but unevenly Our EM-wide PMI suggests that the recovery in EM manufacturing continued at the end of Q3. However, the improvement is uneven. The rebound was most prominent in Emerging Europe, helped by the... 2nd October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update September’s PMIs show Turkey rebounding, Russia lagging September’s PMIs suggest that manufacturing in the highly-open Central European economies continued to recover and that Turkey’s manufacturing sector rebounded. However, growth in Turkey appears to... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update September PMIs suggest manufacturing may have turned a corner The September PMIs for Emerging Asia show that manufacturing conditions have improved, with the headline number increasing in all six economies. Moreover, a broad-based rise in the new orders... 1st October 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania’s easing cycle nearing an end The Romanian central bank cut interest rates again today against the backdrop of weak growth and falling inflation. However, the Bank lowered rates by less than it did in August due, it seems, to... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Focus Logistics: where are the opportunities? Over the next 5-10 years, we think that capital values in the European logistics sector will be strongest in Hungary, Ireland and the UK, but also above average in Russia and Germany. 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s external debt burden not a cause for concern (yet) A recent warning from Russia’s Deputy Finance Minister has led to renewed concerns about the country’s growing burden of external debt. But while debt has risen sharply in recent quarters, we don’t... 30th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Recovery gains momentum September’s European Commission Economic Sentiment Indicators (ESIs) allow us to form an early view of how Emerging Europe has performed in Q3, and the good news is that the recovery seems to be... 27th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Quick-fire reforms won’t prevent renewed taper-turbulence Suggestions that policymakers in troubled emerging markets (EM) now have a window of opportunity to reduce external vulnerabilities before the Fed begins to taper miss the point that these countries’... 27th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Poland leads the way The latest activity data show that Emerging Europe’s recovery is continuing. Detailed Q2 GDP figures released this month confirmed that the region as a whole grew by 1.6% y/y, up from 1.3% y/y in the... 27th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Improving Czech economy reduces need for FX intervention The strengthening of the Czech economy is preventing the National Bank from plumping for furtherpolicy easing, namely FX intervention to weaken the koruna. With the economic recovery still fragile... 26th September 2013 · 1 min read
