Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia's deteriorating external position a sign that all is not well Russia’s current account surplus declined over the course of 2013 and, for the first time since the 2008/09 crisis, became insufficient to cover capital outflows. Of course, with over $500bn in FX... 22nd January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish central bank shoots itself in the foot In spite of the recent sharp fall in the lira, high inflation and rising inflation expectations, the Turkish central bank (CBRT) caved in to pressure from the government and resisted hiking interest... 21st January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM recovery remains slow going Six months ago there were hopeful signs that growth in the emerging world might finally be picking up. But our GDP tracker suggests the upturn in growth seen in mid-2013 may have faltered in the final... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Assessing the threat from Turkish corporate FX debt The recent sharp fall in the lira doesn’t appear to have led to significant FX debt servicing problems for Turkish companies. But given the rapid expansion of corporate FX debt over the past decade... 17th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Emerging Market Consumer Snapshot (Q1 2014) EM consumer spending grew at its slowest pace since 2009 last year. However, the latest data suggest that spending has started to pick up in recent months and, while a significant upturn seems... 16th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Should we worry about rising levels of external debt? Most analysis of EM vulnerabilities to Fed tapering and the likelihood of tougher external financing conditions over the coming years has focussed on the size of a country’s current account deficit... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Better governance needed for Turkish income “convergence” Improved governance appears to have been a key ingredient in Turkey’s economic success story over the past decade. But further reforms will be needed if Turkish incomes are to continue “converging”... 15th January 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Warsaw office rental downturn ending, but recovery still some way off It now looks likely that Warsaw office rents fell by between 3% and 5% last year, in line with our forecasts. We think that office rents should now stabilise, as occupier demand turns increasingly... 14th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What does 2014 hold in store for Emerging Europe? After a torrid run over the past five years, things are looking on the up for Emerging Europe. Of course, the region will remain vulnerable to events in the euro-zone. However, so long as the single... 13th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook The elusive recovery Fears about the impact of Fed tapering on Ems have eased in recent months, but the economic data have remained weak. Indeed, our GDP Tracker suggests that growth remains stuck at a four-year low... 10th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Does rising confidence in Hungary herald stronger growth? Last month’s EC Economic Sentiment Indicator for Hungary rose to its highest level for over a decade and, on past form, this is consistent with GDP growth of 5% y/y or so. However, it’s worth noting... 9th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Romania likely to cut rates further Following today's decision to lower interest rates, the Romanian central bank hinted that further policy easing could be on the cards. The country's large external financing needs limit the scope for... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Four wildcards for 2014 Our central forecast is for another year of lacklustre growth in the emerging world in 2014. But, as always, there are risks to our forecast - both on the upside and downside. Most attention has... 8th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor "Fragile five" trade balances improving EM export growth continued to gather pace in November and forward-looking indicators suggest that the recovery has further to run. There are signs that the trade balances of the “fragile five” EMs... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fall in the lira may trigger Turkish rate hike The Turkish central bank has been extremely reluctant to raise official interest rates over the past year or so. However, the recent fall in the lira may now force its hand. On balance, we think it is... 7th January 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Turkish lira comes under fire A high-level corruption scandal has taken its toll on Turkey’s financial markets over the past month. The stock market has been the second worst performer among those of the emerging economies that we... 3rd January 2014 · 1 min read
