Emerging Europe Economics Update More to Turkey’s rebalancing than meets the eye Turkish Q1 GDP data due tomorrow are likely toreinforce optimism in the markets that the economyis undergoing a smooth rebalancing, with netexports taking over from domestic demand as themain driver... 9th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The ECB and what it means for Central & Eastern Europe Yesterday’s move by the ECB is another reason to think that monetary policy in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) will remain loose for longer than most people expect. However, the impact of the ECB’s... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Less to EM reserve accumulation than meets the eye Foreign exchange reserve accumulation by emerging markets has been cited by some as a reason whybond yields in the developed world have fallen in recent months and by others as evidence that the... 6th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economic Outlook Weak growth masks diverging prospects Growth in Emerging Europe is set to remain sluggish over the next couple of years, due in large part to continued weakness in the region’s largest economy, Russia, and a looming slowdown in the region... 4th June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish MPC strikes a more dovish tone The Polish National Bank’s Governor, Marek Belka, was more dovish at this afternoon’s post-meeting press conference, and didn’t rule out the possibility of a cut in interest rates this year. However... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing strengthens a touch on China rebound May’s PMI data suggest that EM manufacturing strengthened a little last month, having softened for most of the past half a year. There was a welcome improvement in the PMIs of the BRICs, particularly... 3rd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Less to Russia’s industry rebound than meets the eye The rebound in Russian industrial production has taken many, including us, by surprise and has been interpreted by some as a sign that a weaker ruble has started to provide support to industry... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish PMI may be overly pessimistic At first glance, the sharp fall in Poland’s manufacturing PMI in May suggests that the economy has lost some steam, perhaps due to spillovers from the crisis in neighbouring Ukraine. However, it’s... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus From turbulence to tranquillity: are EM markets now too complacent? After a choppy 2013, financial markets have turned optimistic over the outlook for EMs in recent months. In many ways this makes sense. We were always of the view that last year’s concerns that Fed... 2nd June 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Domestic demand supporting Polish recovery The breakdown of Polish Q1 GDP data showed that the drivers of the recovery are broadening from exports to domestic demand. And it looks like the economy strengthened further at the start of the... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update A slowdown in Turkish spending should keep a lid on retail rents Recent data suggest that the Turkish economy is in good health, and beginning to show signs of a welcome rebalancing. However, as a consequence, retail sales are starting to suffer from measures to... 30th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russian markets rebound as Ukraine concerns take a back seat Russian equities and the ruble have been the region’s best performers over the past month following conciliatory remarks from Russia’s President Putin as well as Petro Poroshenko’s victory in Ukraine... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM growth steady, but some bright spots Growth in the emerging world as a whole was steady at around 4.5% y/y over the first few months of the year, but there are several bright spots. Growth has picked up in some of the more open... 29th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Rate cuts not the solution to Turkey’s competitiveness problem The Turkish government is becoming increasingly vocal in its demands for the central bank to cut interest rates, arguing that high interest rates risk making the lira overvalued which would damage... 28th May 2014 · 1 min read
EM Valuations Monitor Strong rally in Russian equities unlikely to last Over the past month, the stock market has performed better in Russia than in any other country included in the MSCI Emerging Markets Index, as tensions in Ukraine have eased. But the near-15% rally... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungarian policymakers to keep monetary conditions loose Having cut interest rates earlier today, the National Bank of Hungary once again didn’t give much away about the outlook for monetary policy. The MPC appears to have become a little more dovish... 27th May 2014 · 1 min read
