Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor Little threat of a systemic EM crisis We do not expect the tapering and eventual ending of QE by the US Fed to be the trigger for a systemic Emerging Market (EM) crisis. Our Capital Economics Risk Indicator (CERI) suggests that financial... 12th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Bumpy path ahead for Turkish retail yields Yesterday’s Q2 GDP data from Turkey suggest that retail occupier demand in Istanbul and Ankara is currently pretty strong. Against this backdrop, we think retail yields in both markets could fall... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Ukraine: hryvnia’s stability masks underlying weakness At first sight, the stability of the hryvnia over the past few months suggests that Ukraine has been relatively insulated from the sharp sell-off in other emerging markets. But a closer look reveals... 11th September 2013 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Is industrial property in Prague poised to outperform? Our forecasts envisage that by end-2017, office and retail capital values in Prague are unlikely to be materially higher than current levels. By contrast we think that industrial values might rise by... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish growth looking increasingly unsustainable Following today’s stronger-than-expected Turkish Q2 GDP data, we are revising up our growth forecast for this year as a whole. However, growth was driven by credit-fuelled consumer spending and a... 10th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia dwindling current account surplus: causes & consequences Despite continued high oil prices, Russia’s current account surplus has fallen from around 7% of GDP prior to the 2008/09 crisis to around 2% now and is on track to slip into a deficit by 2015. Given... 6th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Shift towards tighter policy in Poland looks some way off Governor Belka provided few clues at his post-MPC press conference about when the Polish National Bank might shift towards tightening mode. But with the economic recovery unlikely to be accompanied by... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Q2 recovery supported by strengthening euro-zone The breakdown of GDP data for Central and South Eastern Europe confirmed that the acceleration in growth seen in Q2 was largely a result of stronger demand from the euro-zone. But there were also... 4th September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus Poland: towards a sweet spot of faster growth and low inflation The severity of the slowdown in the Polish economy over the past 18 months took commentators and policymakers by surprise. The good news is that the slowdown appears to have been largely cyclical in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM PMI signals modest improvement in manufacturing Our EM-wide PMI suggests that emerging market manufacturing improved a little last month. The recovery in the euro-zone in recent months appears to have boosted external demand, particularly in... 3rd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update BRIC GDP growth propped up by Brazil rebound in Q2 At an aggregate level, the second quarter GDP data suggest that the BRIC economies held up relatively well in Q2. However, this was largely due to a surprisingly strong rebound in Brazil. In the other... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update PMIs show further signs of recovery in Central Europe The raft of manufacturing PMIs across Central Europe for August provide further evidence that the region’s recovery is gathering pace, helped by the improvement in the German economy. In contrast... 2nd September 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish recovery driven by exports The breakdown of Q2 Polish GDP data underlined that its tentative economic turnaround is largely a result of stronger external demand. But with the recovery in the euro-zone set to be modest, growth... 30th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe turns the corner It’s been a good month for Central Europe, although the news elsewhere in the region has been less encouraging. A raft of preliminary Q2 GDP data showed that, although growth remains weak in Central... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Renewed growth to boost property values The fundamental drivers of commercial property outside of the single currency region have not changed materially since our previous Analyst. However, a widespread rise in business sentiment has... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What might the next twist in Turkish monetary policy be? The Turkish central bank appears ready to add to its policy toolkit in order to support the lira. No details have been provided yet, but our best guess is that, if new measures are introduced, they... 28th August 2013 · 1 min read
