Emerging Europe Chart Pack Central Europe recovers as Russia struggles The latest activity data show that the recovery in Central Europe that started in the second half of last year gathered pace in Q1. Our GDP trackers suggest that growth in the Czech Republic, Hungary... 16th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s economy less resilient than commonly perceived The escalation of unrest in the east of Ukraine has thrust the issue of Western sanctions against Russia back onto the agenda. No side would win in a tit-for-tat exchange of sanctions, but by the same... 15th April 2014 · 1 min read
Global Economic Outlook West to outperform East The world economy should expand steadily in the coming two years, helped by an increasingly strong recovery in the US. However, while the euro-zone has stabilised, it is not growing fast enough to... 14th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Fiscal stimulus alone won’t revive Russia’s economy The discussion about how to soften the fallout from the Ukraine crisis on the Russian economy has started to shift towards fiscal stimulus, with key ministers advocating looser fiscal policy earlier... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Trade Monitor EM export growth still sluggish EM-wide exports fell in February and, while this may be due in part to distortions in the Chinese data, the bigger picture is that EM export growth has been sluggish for the past two years. There are... 10th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Polish monetary policy to remain loose as economy strengthens Following the decision to leave interest rates on hold earlier today, Governor Belka acknowledged that the Polish economy appears to be undergoing a strong recovery at this afternoon’s post-meeting... 9th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Where and why we differ from the IMF The IMF downgraded its expectations for EM growth in today’s World Economic Outlook (WEO), bringing its forecasts a step closer to our own. Nonetheless, while there is now not much difference between... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update Picking apart the prospects for “frontier markets” After a stellar run over the past decade or so, growth across “frontier markets” as a whole is likely to slow over the next couple of years. But the moderation in aggregate growth will mask important... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update The economic implications of Ukraine’s IMF deal Unrest in the east of Ukraine has cast the spotlight back onto the political troubles facing the country’s interim government. What happens from here is highly uncertain, but in the meantime the... 8th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Lira at risk if Turkish MPC starts to ease policy The recent appreciation of the Turkish lira has caused the central bank’s (CBRT’s) MPC to adopt a more dovish stance, with Governor Basci suggesting that measures might be taken this month to loosen... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary opts for another four more years of Orbanomics Prime Minister Orban’s Fidesz party swept to victory in yesterday’s parliamentary election in Hungary and, in the very near term, his premiership is likely to come alongside a strengthening economic... 7th April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economic Outlook Focus shifts to home-grown vulnerabilities Concerns about the impact on emerging economies of tapering by the US Fed have taken a back seat as investors have begun to focus on issues closer to home. The worst fears about a “hard landing” in... 3rd April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing recovery falters Manufacturing across the emerging world appears to have taken another turn for the worse in the first quarter of this year. This was largely driven by a renewed downturn in the BRIC economies. By... 2nd April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia’s recovery in late 2013 has now fizzled out The final estimate of 2013 GDP data reveals that Russia’s economy picked up a little pace towards the end of last year. But our GDP Tracker suggests that the recovery had already started to fizzle out... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Two-speed growth in manufacturing Manufacturing PMIs fell across Emerging Europe last month, but in the highly-open economies of Central Europe the data are still consistent with robust manufacturing output growth, of 7-10% y/y. By... 1st April 2014 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update AK party’s support may suffer from weakening growth Turkish municipal election results showed that PM Erdogan and the ruling AK party continue to enjoy high levels of popularity, bolstered by the strength of the economy. Nonetheless, in spite of today... 31st March 2014 · 1 min read
