Europe Rapid Response Germany Ifo Survey (December 2024) The Ifo Business Climate Index (BCI) remained deep in recessionary territory in December. While the survey has overstated the weakness in the economy this year, the outlook is quite poor and we think... 17th December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK Labour Market (Oct. 2024) The big rise in regular private sector pay growth in October will increase the Bank of England’s concerns about a resurgence in inflation despite the weak news on activity. 17th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Headwinds to euro-zone stock markets to blow harder While equities in Germany have managed to ride out weak growth and political uncertainty this year, those in France have not. We suspect that they will all fare poorly next year, as those adverse... 16th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack Emerging Markets Chart Pack (December 2024) EM GDP growth picked up in the second half of the year but faces headwinds in 2025 from tight policy at home and challenges abroad. Our growth forecasts generally sit below the consensus. Monetary... 16th December 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economic Outlook Low growth, low inflation, low rates We expect economic growth in the euro-zone to remain sluggish. This is partly due to adverse demographics and structural forces hampering the competitiveness of industry. But past monetary tightening... 16th December 2024 · 28 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK S&P Global Flash PMIs (Dec. 2024) Despite the composite PMI staying at 50.5 in December, at face value it’s consistent with the 0.1% q/q rise in real GDP in Q3 being followed by a 0.3%q/q contraction in Q4. Admittedly, we doubt the... 16th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (December 2024) December’s PMI survey for the euro-zone suggests that the economy is contracting and that price pressures remain largely under control. 16th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Fall of Assad, new NATO spending target? The fall of Syria’s President Bashar al-Assad last weekend is a geopolitical blow to Russia, but has been warmly welcomed by many others. Turkey, in particular, could benefit from more influence in... 13th December 2024 · 8 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Why is the economy struggling so much? The loss of economic momentum in the second half of the year isn't just due to the Budget but may also be due to the drag from high interest rates lasting longer and a growing restraint from weak... 13th December 2024 · 9 mins read
Commodities Outlook Weak market fundamentals; geopolitics the wildcard Most energy and industrial metals prices will fall in 2025 as structural headwinds to demand build and supply rises. Geopolitical developments remain a key uncertainty and it is easy to think of... 13th December 2024 · 23 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB dovish; French politics; defence spending to rise? Investors appear to have interpreted Christine Lagarde’s comments yesterday, and the subsequent leaks to the media, as more hawkish than expected. But we remain convinced that the ECB will cut... 13th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Industrial Production (October 2024) October’s euro-zone industrial production data look much worse without Ireland, where the data are notoriously volatile. The big picture is that the region’s industrial sector remains very weak and we... 13th December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Rapid Response UK GDP (Oct. 2024) The 0.1% m/m fall in GDP in October is the second such decline in a row and means there is every chance that the economy went backwards in Q4 as a whole. Talk of a recession still feels a bit... 13th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily ECB policy may push Bund yields back down next year Given our dovish view of ECB policy, we expect German Bund yields to fall back in 2025, and to diverge further from US Treasury yields. 12th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update One step at a time for the Riksbank Next Thursday, we expect the Riksbank to reduce its policy rate from 2.75% to 2.5% as it closes in on the end of its loosening cycle. In contrast, we think Norges Bank will leave its policy rate... 12th December 2024 · 5 mins read
