Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Dec. 2024) GDP growth picked up in Q3 but timelier data suggest that it has slowed in Q4. We expect growth to remain sluggish next year regardless of whether President Trump raises tariffs on imports from Europe... 6th December 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly French budget deadlock to continue Following the collapse of Michel Barnier’s administration, there is no realistic prospect of a stable government being formed that could address France’s fiscal problems. There is a risk that the... 6th December 2024 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Mission impossible to mission plausible By shifting its target from achieving the highest sustained growth rate in the G7 to delivering “higher living standards”, the government has gone from what looks like mission impossible to mission... 6th December 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Economics Update Euro-zone growth outlook remains poor Data released today show that euro-zone household consumption rose strongly in Q3. But slowing real income growth means that we expect spending growth to be subdued in the coming quarters. Meanwhile... 6th December 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Nov. 2024) The leap in Halifax house prices in November mirrors the jump in the Nationwide measure and suggests that some relief rally or release of pent-up demand after the Budget has more than offset the... 6th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Economics Update SNB to cut by 25bp and state further cuts to come In contrast to market pricing, we think that the SNB will be cautious and cut its policy rate by just 25bps, to 0.75%, next week as the Bank sticks to a gradual approach to loosening monetary policy... 5th December 2024 · 5 mins read
ECB Watch “Dovish” 25bp rate cut likely next week While there is a strong case for the ECB to accelerate the pace of policy easing by delivering a 50bp cut next week, a majority of the Governing Council seems to prefer 25bp, which would bring the... 5th December 2024 · 8 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (October 2024) October’s decline in euro-zone retail sales followed a good third quarter for retailers. We suspect that the strength in sales in Q3 was just a one off and that growth will be subdued in the coming... 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Nov. 24) The headline CIPS construction PMI increased to 55.2 in November, from 54.3 in October, indicating an expansion of construction activity. 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Focus Is strong services spending here to stay? We think that the shift in the shape of consumer spending over the past few years away from spending on goods towards spending on services is here to stay. While the recent strength in spending on... 5th December 2024 · 14 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (November) While all three key measures of inflation in Sweden rose in November, this does not change the underlying story that inflation is around its target level and is likely to stay there over the next year... 5th December 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Poland Interest Rate Announcement (Dec.) The National Bank of Poland (NBP) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 5.75%, and a rise in inflation over the coming months means that the monetary easing cycle won’t resume until the middle... 4th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Will there be a retail renaissance in Paris? Paris retail rents surged in Q3 raising hopes for a sustained revival. But this jump probably reflects a temporary boost from the Olympics and momentum is expected to fade next year. Despite this, we... 4th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Taking stock of contagion risks in EZ bond markets The probable imminent collapse of the French government is not having much impact on bond markets elsewhere in the euro-zone. And we think contagion risks will remain limited, as long as the monetary... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Commodities Update The geopolitics that will shape energy markets in 2025 While energy market fundamentals point to oil prices falling a bit further and prices of European natural gas and Asian LNG remaining higher than before the Russia-Ukraine war, the uncertain... 3rd December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Is France the new Greece? France is unlikely to have a government with a mandate to tighten fiscal policy anytime soon, so the risks to its bond market will continue to grow. Its debt dynamics are not as bad as those of Greece... 3rd December 2024 · 4 mins read
