Emerging Europe Economics Update CEE inflation data less encouraging than it seems At first sight, the latest CPI data out of Central and Eastern Europe (CEE) might seem to provide central banks reason for comfort. But a look under the surface paints a more worrying picture... 10th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Norway CPI (June 2024) The continued decline in inflation in Norway supports our view that Norges Bank will start cutting interest rates before the end of this year, rather than waiting until 2025 as its current guidance... 10th July 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily We still think the euro will fare well against the pound In the wake of the political tumult in France contrasting with newfound stability in the UK, the outlook for the exchange rate between the euro and sterling has come into spotlight. We think that... 9th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jul. 2024) The latest data suggest that the recovery in euro-zone activity will continue – notwithstanding the uncertainty created by France’s snap election. The euro-zone labour market is tight, with... 9th July 2024 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Is Turkey losing external competitiveness? Turkey’s economy has maintained strong external price competitiveness since the pandemic (mirrored by rapid export growth). But measures of competitiveness have shown a noticeable decline in the past... 9th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Crunch time for the Bank of England? 1721291400 We’ve reassessed our expectations for the start of Bank of England rate cuts in light of the latest UK CPI and employment data.
Europe Economics Update What next for France? The results of France’s parliamentary elections mean it should avoid the large, unfunded fiscal expansion that two of the three major political groups were advocating. But it also means France is very... 8th July 2024 · 9 mins read
Europe Economics Update German budget deal only moderately encouraging The budget deal struck by the governing coalition in Germany reduces the risk of the country being forced into early elections. But it does little to address Germany’s structural problems, in part... 8th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Capital Daily Wait-and-see in markets as France avoids far-right PM The surprising results of the French legislative elections have not triggered much of a market reaction. While investors appear to have been relieved by the far-right National Rally (RN)’s failure to... 8th July 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) Israel’s central bank (BoI) left its policy rate on hold at 4.50% as expected today and interest rates are likely to remain on hold for the time being while fiscal, inflation and geopolitical risks... 8th July 2024 · 2 mins read
US Commercial Property Update Near-term laggard but US to outperform longer term The slower adjustment to past rises in interest rates and sharper hit to office demand mean US property is set to underperform European property over the next five years. But unlike equities, we think... 8th July 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Second round results of France’s parliamentary election The exit polls for the second-round of France’s legislative election are certainly a surprise. The left-wing New Popular Front (NFP) appears to have become the biggest group in parliament, while... 7th July 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Where are fiscal concerns greatest – the UK, France or US? With the public finances in the UK in decent shape relative to France and the US, and the new UK government committing to greater fiscal discipline, we think investors are right not to worry as much... 5th July 2024 · 5 mins read
UK Economics Weekly The key milestones ahead as Starmer enters No. 10 As the dust settles on the election result, there will be a lot of discussion about what comes next. We think Labour may move quickly on its low-cost supply side reforms, such as overhauling planning... 5th July 2024 · 8 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly The hawks come out in their droves Inflation data out of the region this week as well as comments from central bank officials strengthen our view that interest rates are likely to be hiked again in some places (potentially as large as... 5th July 2024 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Romania Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.) Romania’s central bank (NBR) started its easing cycle at today’s meeting with a 25bp rate cut, to 6.75%. But with inflation and fiscal risks still high, this is likely to be a slow and gradual cycle... 5th July 2024 · 2 mins read
