UK Economics Weekly Gilt market is not in crisis, but it does cause problems This week’s leap in gilt yields creates more problems for the Chancellor and is an extra headwind for the economy. But it is not a crisis and the cause mostly originates overseas rather than being... 10th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Trump’s plan to end the war – is the timeline shifting? Expectations for an imminent end to Russia’s war in Ukraine once Trump takes office as US President on 20th January took a knock this week, following an FT report and statements by officials... 10th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Jan. 2025) We expect the euro-zone economy to grow at only a sluggish pace this year, with southern economies outperforming the core. Germany’s election will lead to only a modest loosening of its restrictive... 10th January 2025 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Cyclical oil market drivers in the ascendancy, for now The recent rise in oil prices – to a three-month high just shy of $80pb – can be partly attributed to the apparent pick-up in activity in China at the end of 2024, which is likely to continue to... 10th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly ECB to keep cutting; bond vigilantes returning? The continued strength of services inflation means ECB policymakers will feel in no hurry to slash interest rates, but we still think the deposit rate will fall from 3.0% currently to 1.5% in Q3... 10th January 2025 · 6 mins read
UK Economics Update Gilt market and fiscal policy: your questions answered With long-dated gilt yields hitting multi-decade highs, we held an online Drop-In session on Wednesday to discuss the outlook for the gilt market and the implications for government policy and the UK... 9th January 2025 · 9 mins read
Commodities Update Assessing the risks to energy prices While upside risks to energy prices have garnered plenty of attention in recent months, there are several downside risks that are worth noting. Although we would characterise the downside risks –... 9th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Capital Daily A global bond market storm in a British teacup UK Gilts have not only been embroiled in a global government bond sell-off, but they have fared worse than others. However, we think that bonds will recover before long, with yields in the UK falling... 9th January 2025 · 4 mins read
UK Economics Update What taxes could the Chancellor raise to save her fiscal rule? We originally published an Update ahead of the general election on 4th July on what taxes the next government could raise. In light of the recent rise in gilt yields putting the Chancellor on course... 9th January 2025 · 5 mins read
Global Commercial Property Chart Pack Global Commercial Property Chartpack (Q4 2024) 2024 likely marked the bottom in all-property values in Europe, but we expect further falls in the US in 2025. That said, US performance should improve further ahead, outpacing the euro-zone over the... 9th January 2025 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Troubling start to 2025 casts doubt over our key 2025 forecasts The troubling start to 2025 is casting doubt over our key non-consensus forecasts for 2025. But we still think other forecasters are underestimating how fast the economy will grow, how far inflation... 9th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Nov. 24) The 0.1% m/m increase in euro-zone retail sales in November was a little worse than expected and follows a fall in sales of 0.3% in October. This suggests that aggregate retail sales may have declined... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update Will the “periphery” continue to outperform? The outperformance of the peripheral economies since early 2022 is likely to continue over the next year, supported by high immigration, tourism growth and Next Generation EU funding. That said... 9th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Industrial Production (Nov.) German industrial production picked up in November. But the level of output was still very low by past standards and with industry facing several structural headwinds we expect the sector to continue... 9th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Our key calls for 2025 Against a backdrop of lower interest rates and weak economic growth in much of Europe, we think the recovery in property values will continue at a gradual pace in 2025. Our forecast for euro-zone... 8th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update Property returns to see another modest year Compared to our end-2023 forecasts, property yields look set to end 2024 a bit higher than we anticipated and rental growth stronger. Overall, that means our call for all-property total returns of... 8th January 2025 · 3 mins read
