Global Markets Update No Olympic truce for French and other EZ spreads While the recent financial market meltdown has pushed some euro-zone government bond spreads up, we don’t see good reasons for risk sentiment to remain so downbeat. So we expect the upward pressure on... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Chart Pack Europe Chart Pack (Aug. 2024) The euro-zone data do not scream “rate cut” – the economy is growing at a steady pace and domestic inflation has stabilised at a high level. But we suspect that most ECB policymakers will judge that a... 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
US Commercial Property Update Investment recovering, but not without risks While the UK led the recovery in investment activity in Q4 last year, the latest data suggest the US and euro-zone are now also turning a corner. But given concerns over economic growth in all three... 6th August 2024 · 4 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (June 2024) Retail sales fell in June but we think they will gradually rise over the remainder of the year on the back of strong real household income growth and falling interest rates. 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI (Jul 24) 6th August 2024 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Tourism to keep supporting southern outperformance Tourism in the euro-zone is likely to continue growing at a decent pace over the coming quarters due to rising real wages and increased capacity. This will be a particular boon to the southern... 5th August 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update London industrial demand will soon recover The impact of the cost-of-living crisis, which has been weighing on London industrial take-up, has a bit further to run. But London is well-positioned to benefit from the rise in consumer spending we... 5th August 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Jul.) The large fall in headline inflation in Turkey in July will provide some comfort to the central bank that the disinflation process remains on track, although it will take time for policymakers to be... 5th August 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Weekly Doubting the BoE’s hawkish tilt It may seem odd that we’re still forecasting interest rates to fall from 5.00% now to 4.50% this year and to 3.00% next year when the Bank of England said this week that it doesn't expect to cut rates... 2nd August 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Geopolitical tensions ratchet up risks for Israel An escalation of the conflict in the Middle East risks delaying Israel’s economic recovery even further, adding to pressure on the country's strained public finances, and pushing up risk premia on... 2nd August 2024 · 10 mins read
Europe Economics Weekly September cut still likely; Germany-Spain divergence We think data released this week are just about consistent with an ECB rate cut in September, but with underlying price pressures still high that is not a done deal. Meanwhile, the recent economic... 2nd August 2024 · 7 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (July) Switzerland’s inflation rate was unchanged in July at 1.3%, keeping it below the SNB’s Q3 forecast of 1.5%. Reassuringly for policymakers, private services inflation fell for the first time in six... 2nd August 2024 · 2 mins read
Capital Daily What’s next for markets as BoE cuts and Fed gets close Bond yields have fallen in the US and the UK after the Fed signalled an imminent rate cut and the Bank of England delivered one. But only in the UK do we see more room down for yields. 1st August 2024 · 4 mins read
Emerging Markets Financial Risk Monitor EM Financial Risk Monitor (Aug. 2024) Financial vulnerabilities have continued to ease across EMs. Our EM aggregate currency crisis risk indicator hit a multi-year low in Q2, with especially large falls in Turkey and Pakistan. Sovereign... 1st August 2024 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Rates cut to 5.00%, but BoE in no rush to cut again The Bank of England kick-started a loosening cycle today by cutting interest rates from 5.25% to 5.00%, but the accompanying guidance and forecasts suggest it will proceed cautiously. Accordingly, we... 1st August 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Czech Interest Rate Announcement (Aug.) Czech National Bank Governor Michl sounded fairly cautious in his guidance about the future course of the easing cycle in the post-meeting press conference today. But the post-meeting statement struck... 1st August 2024 · 3 mins read
