Europe Economics Update

Ageing population to weigh on EZ labour market

Net immigration to euro-zone countries will probably be higher than the UN assumes in its latest population forecasts. But we still think the working age population will decline over the coming decade...

25th July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

German Ifo Survey (Jul.)

The large fall in the German Ifo BCI in July, which follows a similar drop in the Composite PMI published yesterday, adds to the impression that the rebound in Germany’s economy earlier in the year...

25th July 2024 · 2 mins read

FX Markets Update

Sterling still likely to weaken later this year

While the pound has outperformed all major G10 currencies so far this year, we still expect it to depreciate against the greenback later in the year as the Bank of England eases monetary policy more...

24th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Olympics no game changer for French economy

Business surveys released this morning add to evidence that the Olympics will lift activity in France slightly in Q3. However, activity is likely to drop back again in Q4 and we still think annual GDP...

24th July 2024 · 4 mins read

UK Commercial Property Update

Supermarket recovery delayed, but still imminent

Supermarkets struggled in 2023, as falling food sales volumes hit profits and rental growth. But the future looks brighter. As food price inflation has fallen supermarket profits have recovered and...

24th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone Flash PMIs (July 2024)

The flash PMIs for July suggest that the euro-zone’s recovery may be fizzling out at the start of Q3, while output price pressures eased but remained high in the services sector.

24th July 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK S&P Global/CIPS Flash PMIs (Jul. 2024)

July’s composite PMI suggests some of the recent rebound in activity this year may have been due to catch-up growth following the weakness of activity last year and GDP growth is easing towards a more...

24th July 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Focus

What would a Trump victory mean for Russia-Ukraine?

Donald Trump has said that he could quickly end the war in Ukraine if he is re-elected as US President. This Focus answers key questions on what the shape of any agreement might look like, what might...

23rd July 2024 · 16 mins read

Europe Commercial Property Update

Lending surveys point to weak recovery in transactions

Recent surveys of real estate lenders paint a picture of a European lending market that is still seized up, as loan terms tightened and credit demand fell in H1. Lenders are optimistic that demand for...

23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Hungary Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

The Hungarian central bank (MNB) cut interest rates by 25bp again today, to 6.75%, and the post-meeting press conference suggests that, while there are some MPC members who want to pause the easing...

23rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Update

Is the UK’s fiscal situation as bad as the Chancellor says?

Without wishing to downplay the ugly fiscal picture, we think the new government is overplaying the gloom. We suspect more optimistic economic forecasts and various tweaks to the fiscal rules will...

23rd July 2024 · 4 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Turkey Interest Rate Announcement (Jul.)

Turkey’s central bank left its key policy rate on hold today, at 50.00%, and the communications accompanying the decision suggest that interest rate cuts are still some way off. While most analysts...

23rd July 2024 · 2 mins read

Europe Economics Focus

German debt brake to cause more self-inflicted pain

Fiscal policy has become almost as fraught in Germany as it is in France and Italy, but rather than from a desire to run very loose fiscal policy, Germany’s woes stem from its strict “debt brake”...

23rd July 2024 · 21 mins read

UK Economics Update

Pay rise for NHS staff and teachers not a big inflationary risk

We doubt the independent pay review bodies’ recommendations for the government to give teachers and NHS staff a 5.5% pay rise will prevent wage growth from slowing to 3.0% by the end of next year. But...

23rd July 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Outlook

Housing market to surpass expectations in 2025

House prices will probably remain flat for the rest of 2024, but lower mortgage rates will provide scope for prices to beat expectations next year. Indeed, our forecast that Bank Rate will be lowered...

22nd July 2024 · 17 mins read