Europe Rapid Response

Euro-zone HICP (June 2024)

It already seemed unlikely that the ECB would cut interest rates at its meeting in July, and June’s inflation data – particularly the continued strength of services inflation – will reinforce...

2nd July 2024 · 2 mins read

Capital Daily

French election first-round relief rally might not last

Investors have welcomed the broadly unsurprising results of the first round of the French legislative elections, but the discount on French financial assets is still there and, in our view, likely to...

1st July 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Update

Germany no longer immune to budget trouble

Much of the recent focus has been on France’s political turmoil, but Germany has had its own troubles with disagreement over the 2025 budget threatening the survival of the governing coalition. While...

1st July 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

Germany Flash HICP (June)

Inflation figures for Germany and other major euro-zone economies suggest that, after rising in May, euro-zone headline and core inflation edged back down in June. But services inflation remained high...

1st July 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK Money & Lending (May 2024)

May’s money and lending data provided a bit further evidence that the drag from higher activity is starting to fade. Together with our view that the Bank of England will cut interest rates from 5.25%...

1st July 2024 · 3 mins read

Emerging Europe Rapid Response

Emerging Europe Manufacturing PMIs (Jun.)

The manufacturing PMIs for June provide encouraging signs that a rebalancing of Turkey’s economy is underway, with domestic demand weakening and inflation pressures softening. But in Russia, the...

1st July 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Housing Market Rapid Response

Nationwide House Prices (Jun. 2024)

Although house prices rose slightly in June, an earlier dip means they were flat on the quarter in Q2. With signs mortgage rates are causing demand to falter and that supply is improving, we think...

1st July 2024 · 3 mins read

Europe Economics Update

First round results of France’s parliamentary election

The preliminary results of the first round of voting are broadly in line with the final opinion polls, showing that Emmanuel Macron’s centrist coalition has lost out to both the left and right. But a...

30th June 2024 · 3 mins read

FX Markets Weekly Wrap

Dollar treads water ahead of US non-farm payrolls

The US dollar index looks set to end the week broadly unchanged after core PCE came in line with expectations today. Yesterday’s presidential debate in the US also does not seem to have had much...

28th June 2024 · 5 mins read

Europe Economics Weekly

Three scenarios for after the French election

With France heading to the polls on Sunday for the first round of the legislative election, the latest polls show a small uptick in support for the National Rally (RN) and French bond spreads have...

28th June 2024 · 10 mins read

Emerging Europe Economics Weekly

French election spillovers, Turkey’s inflation descent

The first round of the French election taking place this weekend could put further upward pressure on bond yields in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), particularly if concerns about the direction for...

28th June 2024 · 8 mins read

UK Economics Weekly

A beacon of economic and political stability?

While we don’t expect Labour to rush to deviate from its manifesto if, as the polls suggest, it wins next week’s general election, the market reaction to the upcoming French election reinforces the...

28th June 2024 · 4 mins read

Europe Rapid Response

France, Italy & Spain HICP (June)

Inflation figures for France, Italy and Spain suggest that euro-zone headline inflation edged down in June, while core and services inflation held broadly steady. This supports our view that the ECB...

28th June 2024 · 2 mins read

UK Economics Rapid Response

UK GDP (Q1 2024 Final)

The upward revision to Q1 GDP growth from 0.6% q/q to 0.7% q/q (consensus forecast 0.6% q/q) suggests whoever is Prime Minister this time next week may benefit from the economic recovery being a bit...

28th June 2024 · 3 mins read

UK Housing Market Update

House prices to slip back in the near term

The slight increase in mortgage rates since the beginning of the year appears to have reached a tipping point for demand. At the same time, the supply of homes being put up for sale has increased...

27th June 2024 · 4 mins read