Emerging Europe Economics Update Russia: are financial stability risks starting to crystallise? Risks to Russia’s macroeconomic stability are mounting on the back of the recent credit boom and sharp rise in interest rates. Our EM financial risk indicators show that Russia is now at high risk of... 12th December 2024 · 4 mins read
BoE Watch Economy not weak enough to trigger consecutive rate cuts Despite the weak news on the domestic economy and the deterioration in the global outlook, we doubt the Bank of England will follow the ECB’s lead and cut interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) next... 12th December 2024 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update Tide gradually turning at the ECB Today’s ECB policy statement and press conference suggest that policymakers are increasingly confident of meeting their inflation goal and increasingly conscious of downside risks to the economy. We... 12th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Rental growth the key driver of the property recovery The recovery in property values is underway. But we think it will be a weak one, even though several European central banks, including the ECB, are forecast to cut interest rates to a lower level than... 12th December 2024 · 27 mins read
Europe Rapid Response ECB Policy Announcement (December 2024) While the ECB’s decision to cut its deposit rate by 25bp was widely expected, the accompanying statement suggests that policymakers are less concerned than previously about upside risks to inflation... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss National Bank Policy Meeting (Dec. 2024) This morning’s 50bp rate cut by the SNB, which brought the policy rate to 0.5%, came as a surprise to most economists though it was balanced by a revised policy statement which implies that... 12th December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Housing Market Update RICS Residential Market Survey (Nov. 2024) November’s RICS survey provides further evidence that housing activity and prices remained resilient to the rise in mortgage rates in November. And our view that mortgage rates will start to fall... 12th December 2024 · 3 mins read
UK Economics Update Three ways the Spending Review could affect fiscal policy With pressures on public spending continuing to grow, this has raised the chances that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, raises spending further in her 2025 Spending Review. If she raises spending and... 11th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Russia Consumer Prices (Nov.) The renewed acceleration in Russian inflation to 8.9% y/y in November, and likelihood of further increases in the coming months, argue strongly in favour of another large interest rate hike from the... 11th December 2024 · 2 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update What happens if gilt yields don’t fall back? Our forecast that commercial real estate is set for a modest recovery is dependent on our view that a decline in gilt yields will help stabilise property yields. But if interest rates don’t fall back... 11th December 2024 · 4 mins read
Commodities Focus Europe waiting for LNG to flow The price of natural gas in Europe was thrust into the spotlight during Europe’s energy crisis and remains a key political and industrial pressure point. In short, we expect natural gas prices in the... 10th December 2024 · 12 mins read
UK Economics Update Tracking the MPC’s thinking with our Bank of England Caseometer Our new Bank of England Caseometer helps track whether the Bank is becoming more inclined to cut interest rates faster and further or slower and not as far. Our forecast is that rates will continue to... 10th December 2024 · 4 mins read
UK Economic Outlook Overseas slowdown won’t derail UK economy Despite the deterioration in the global outlook, we remain optimistic that UK GDP growth will just about beat the consensus forecast over the next couple of years, as lower inflation and bigger falls... 10th December 2024 · 18 mins read
UK Commercial Property Update What’s keeping real estate investors awake at night? A vast share of our clients highlighted geopolitics and/or Trump as their biggest blind spots going into 2025 when polled at our recent London roundtables. Meanwhile, a large majority thought that... 9th December 2024 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Romania election drama, rate cuts delayed across EE The decision by Romania’s constitutional court to annul the first round of the presidential election today after suggestions of Russian interference has been followed by a positive reaction in Romania... 6th December 2024 · 5 mins read
