Europe Rapid Response EC Survey (December 2024) The EC survey is broadly consistent with euro-zone GDP stagnating in Q4. It also suggests that inflationary pressures remain sticky. 8th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Event UK Drop-In: Could the gilt market upend Rachel Reeves’ fiscal plans? 1736348400 Rachel Reeves’ room for manoeuvre is rapidly shrinking as long-end gilt yields rise.
Europe Rapid Response Sweden CPI (December) The fall in inflation in December will ease policymakers’ concerns about upside risks to inflation. We had previously been expecting them to wait until March before cutting the policy rate for a last... 8th January 2025 · 1 min read
Global Economics Focus Trump and the implications for global fracturing Donald Trump’s second term could redraw the global geopolitical map. A sustainable “Grand Bargain” with China, warmer relations with Russia, or a breakdown in the relationship between the US and its... 7th January 2025 · 6 mins read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: disinflation now gathering pace The latest inflation figures out of Turkey have given us more encouragement that the disinflation process is underway and that the central bank could lower interest rates towards 30% by year-end. Even... 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
UK Economics Update Chancellor within a whisker of breaking her fiscal rule There is a significant chance that the Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) will judge that the Chancellor, Rachel Reeves, is on course to miss her main fiscal rule when it revises its forecasts on... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM sovereign debt risks: not just a Brazil problem Brazil’s public finances have been in the headlines for all the wrong reasons over the past month. But while an extreme case, the combination of a large budget deficit and limited political will to... 7th January 2025 · 4 mins read
Europe Commercial Property Update Reviewing our key calls for 2024 The end of the downturn in the European property market came in 2024 as forecast, though the euro-zone performed better than we had expected. That primarily reflected the strength of the prime office... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
UK Commercial Property Rapid Response S&P Global/ CIPS Construction PMI (Dec. 24) The headline CIPS construction PMI eased to a six-month low of 53.3 in December, from 55.2 in November, although that indicates construction activity is still expanding. The decline in the headline... 7th January 2025 · 1 min read
Europe Rapid Response Euro-zone HICP (December 2024) The continued stickiness of euro-zone services inflation means that the ECB is likely to keep cutting interest rates only slowly even as the economic outlook remains poor. 7th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Swiss CPI (December) The fall in Swiss inflation in December suggests that the SNB’s decision to cut by a bumper 50bp in December was fully justified. We think the SNB will cut the policy rate by a further 25bp at its... 7th January 2025 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Rapid Response UK Halifax House Prices (Dec. 2024) The small fall in the Halifax house price index in December is at odds with the chunky rise in the Nationwide measure and suggests that recent rises in mortgage rates started to weigh on the housing... 7th January 2025 · 3 mins read
Emerging Europe Rapid Response Israel Interest Rate Announcement (Jan.) The Bank of Israel (BoI) left its policy rate on hold again today, at 4.50%, but the accompanying communications struck a slightly more dovish tone and we think that it will be in a position to cut... 6th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Rapid Response Germany Flash HICP (December) Data for Germany and Spain suggest euro-zone inflation was higher than expected in December. However, we still think that inflation is likely to undershoot the ECB’s forecasts later this year causing... 6th January 2025 · 2 mins read
Europe Economics Update A primer on the Alternative für Deutschland The Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) has attracted attention recently because of its strong opinion poll ratings and endorsement by Elon Musk. The party has no plausible route to power after February... 3rd January 2025 · 5 mins read
Europe Economics Update What to expect from next week’s data Next week will be a busy one for data releases in Europe. We think that the data will underline that core price pressures are continuing to ease gradually in the euro-zone, while economic growth... 3rd January 2025 · 3 mins read
