Latin America Data Response Mexico Consumer Prices (Feb.) The further large fall in Mexican inflation, from 4.4% y/y in January to 3.9% y/y in February, combined with another dip in core inflation, strengthens the case for rate cuts later this year. We are... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update The implications of a comprehensive US-China deal We have argued before that a limited US-China trade agreement ruling out further tariffs now appears largely priced in to markets. But the chances of a more comprehensive deal, including the roll-back... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Focus Will emerging markets outperform in the long-run? The broad tailwinds that lifted growth across the emerging world over the past two decades won’t be repeated and, as a result, GDP growth will be around 2%-pts weaker over the next 20 years. Income... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Saudi bank tax, Oman gets junk status, Algeria protests Reports that the Saudi government is considering hiking taxes on banks supports our view that low oil prices will eventually prompt a return to fiscal austerity. Meanwhile, Moody’s decision to strip... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update South Africa: (another) downgrade already priced in Fears about a sharp rise in yields if South Africa loses its final investment grade rating on local currency debt look overdone. Most of the bad news already appears to be priced in. 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Watch The relationship between oil prices, rigs and output Theoretically, there should be a relationship between the price of oil, the number of oil rigs actively drilling and oil production. However, the relationship appears to have broken down in the past... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone GDP (Q4 2018, breakdown) The third estimate of euro-zone GDP in Q4 last year confirmed that the economy grew at only a moderate pace, and with the latest data fairly weak the ECB is certain to announce lower forecasts later... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Trade deal will not prevent prices falling Industrial metals prices have risen robustly this year, but we think that the rally is running out of steam. Even if a US - China trade agreement is reached, a slowdown in global growth and an... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
China Data Response FX Reserves (Feb.) The People’s Bank (PBOC) does not appear to have intervened substantially in FX markets in February, suggesting that the renminbi is not facing much downward pressure at present. However, with the... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Non-CBD Helsinki to outperform in 2019-20 Helsinki CBD office returns are set to underperform the rest of the city in 2019-20, as the hunt for yield sees investors drive secondary yields lower. However, with prime rents forecast to grow by 3%... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Current Account (Q4) South Africa’s current account deficit narrowed to 2.2% of GDP in Q4, but this was more due to weak demand than stronger exports. We expect that the shortfall will widen out again this year. 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Halifax House Prices (Feb.) We wouldn’t put too much weight on the jump in house prices recorded by the Halifax index. Indeed, with all signs pointing to falling demand and weakening buyer sentiment, we think prices will rise by... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Stockpiling to help Q1 GDP growth, but not by much There is increasing survey evidence that businesses are stockpiling significant amounts of goods ahead of Brexit, which will probably provide some support to economic growth in Q1. But given that a... 7th March 2019 · 1 min read
DM Markets Chart Pack Monetary policy likely to keep “core” bond yields low We are more dovish than investors about the outlook for monetary policy in most developed markets. If we are right, “core” government bond yields are likely to fall, or remain very low, this year. 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks jumped, largely owing to an increase in net imports. In contrast, product stocks fell, which is partly a seasonal phenomenon but does suggest that US consumer demand is holding up well... 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily What will looser monetary policy mean for Australian assets? 6th March 2019 · 1 min read
