Global Central Bank Watch Yield curves flatten as case for looser policy builds The flattening of yields curves over recent weeks has raised fears of a sharp economic slowdown to come. Central banks are unlikely to be led by the views of bond markets, not least because their... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Frontier Markets Wrap Key frontier market currencies hold up well, for now Frontier market currencies have fared better than their emerging market counterparts during the recent market turmoil. But their balance sheets are generally much weaker, making currencies vulnerable... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Yield curve inversion suggests S&P 500 may have peaked already 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Czech National Bank flags euro-zone concerns The Czech National Bank made clear that it is more concerned about the impact of weakness in the euro-zone than strong domestic inflationary pressures. We still think that above-target inflation may... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Update Closing rate hits record high, but not for long The share of mortgage applications that are approved has reached its highest since records began in 2011. With mortgage lending standards essentially unchanged, that implies borrower quality has... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Should we blame Brexit or the global economy? While everyone knows that Brexit explains a big part of the slowdown in GDP growth in recent years, it’s less widely accepted that the global economy needs to take a lot of the blame too. So while... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update SARB’s inflation concerns fading The South African Reserve Bank’s (relatively) dovish post-meeting communications support our view that the next move in interest rates will be down (probably in early 2020). The markets have moved... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economic Outlook Economic weakness will force rate cuts this year We expect GDP growth to slow to only 1.0% this year, as the housing downturn weighs on the domestic economy and exports are held back by the global slowdown. That weakness should prompt the Bank of... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Employment Report Preview Payroll growth shifting down the gears We expect payroll growth to rebound to 150,000 in March, from 20,000 the month before, but that would still imply employment gains are now beginning to trend lower. 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update What’s behind the weakness in Brazilian industry? Part of the recent weakness in Brazilian industry can be pinned on softer external demand, particularly from Argentina. But the sector has also been affected by temporary factors which have probably... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Weekly Twist in Algeria, Aramco-SABIC deal, Egypt’s draft budget The latest attempt to quell protests in Algeria doesn’t appear to have worked and there’s a risk that the demonstrations become more disruptive and the chances of a messy political transition are... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey’s banks the weakest link during market stress The turmoil in Turkey’s financial markets has raised external borrowing costs, making it more difficult to roll over the country’s large external debt burden. The risks are largest in the banking... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Housebuilding (Q4) In line with our view that housebuilding has peaked, last quarter’s surge in housing starts was not repeated in Q4. Looking ahead, with a wider housing market recovery unlikely anytime soon and Help... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response EC Business and Consumer Survey (Mar.) March’s decline in the euro-zone’s Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) adds to the evidence from other surveys that the economy has continued to lose momentum. And there is no sign that either the... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Economic Sentiment Indicators (Mar.) March’s set of ESIs point to GDP growth in Central and Eastern Europe holding up at 4.0% y/y in Q1. But evidence that the weakening external environment is starting to take a bigger toll the region’s... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Are there lessons to be learnt from 2012-13? The spike in oil prices in 2018 followed a similar pattern to the spike in 2012. As such, the price trend in 2012-13 can perhaps tell us something about the likely direction of prices this year. To be... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
