Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Bouteflexit: what next for Algeria? The decision by Algeria’s President Bouteflika to step down is likely to result in a long and potentially messy transition. At the very least, economic growth will weaken and the chances of a severe... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Retail Sales (Feb.) & Final PMIs (Mar.) February’s retail sales data suggest that household spending growth picked up a bit in Q1. But the Composite PMI, together with other surveys, suggests that GDP growth might have slowed. 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Update Are London new home prices really outperforming? An increase in high-end development and the use of sales incentives have supported recorded new home prices in London. That suggests the observed rise in the new home premium does not signal... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Data Response Turkey Consumer Prices (Mar.) Turkish inflation was stable at 19.7% y/y in March and, while we expect it to resume its downward trend in the coming months, in the near-term at least monetary policy will remain tight to support the... 3rd April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Mexican oil production likely to fall further The best that Mexico’s state-owned oil company, Pemex, can hope for in the coming years is a slower pace of decline in crude production. Many of its shallow oil fields are maturing and the government... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Chart Pack Shaky fundamentals to derail oil price rally Oil prices saw their strongest quarterly gain in almost ten years in Q1 2019. However, we expect that this recent upturn will begin to subside and that the fundamentals of elevated US supply and... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We expect the Loonie, Aussie & Kiwi to fall this year While we think that interest rates will be cut in Canada, Australia and New Zealand over the next couple of years, we suspect that this will be more of a boost to their government bonds than a drag on... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Update Stockholm offices deserve renewed attention Our latest forecasts paint a bright picture for Stockholm office returns over the next few years, supported by “lower for longer” bond yields and another upgrade to rental value growth. 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Risk appetite, not monetary policy, likely to drive $/€ down 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Would a general election help or hinder? With Brexit gridlocked, the chances of a general election appear to be rising. Indeed, after the third defeat of her Brexit deal, Theresa May said that “I fear we are reaching the limits of the... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Durable Goods (Feb.) The 1.6% m/m decline in February’s durable goods orders was principally due to a 31.1% m/m drop back in the notoriously volatile commercial aircraft orders component. Nevertheless, even putting that... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil Industrial Production (Feb.) The 0.7% m/m rise in Brazilian industrial production in February confirms that industry is recovering from a very weak period that was affected by one-off drags in the auto and petroleum refining... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Update Policy not as loose as Poloz thinks The Bank of Canada’s belief that the policy rate is still far below its neutral level looks doubtful. In fact, market pricing implies monetary policy is as restrictive as it was on the eve of the... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Update Budget not as expansionary as it looks The Coalition government’s Budget for 2019/20 promises additional tax cuts while still achieving a budget surplus. Labor will probably win next month’s federal election and we suspect it will at least... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
India Economics Focus The election and its implications for the economy The BJP appears on course to remain in power after India’s general election. But which party wins probably matters less for the economy and financial markets than whether the election delivers a... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update We forecast the euro to fall more in 2019, before rallying We have revised down our already-bearish end-2019 forecast for the euro against the US dollar. Nonetheless, we still think that the exchange rate will bounce back in 2020 as looser monetary policy in... 2nd April 2019 · 1 min read
