Global Markets Update What bonds are telling us about equities in the US We think that the recent inversion of parts of the US Treasury yield curve is a bad sign for the S&P 500, which we expect to fall sharply over the rest of this year as growth in the US economy... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response Global Steel Production (Feb.) Today’s data show that rising Chinese output led to robust global production growth in February, but we think weak demand and high iron ore prices mean that steel mills will cut output sooner rather... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Hungary reluctantly hikes interest rates Today’s very small interest rate hike in Hungary was the least that policymakers could do to show their commitment to the inflation target. But so long as key euro-zone export markets don’t weaken... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Inverted yield curve another signal of weaker growth Some have warned that the recent inversion of the US yield curve signals that a recession is coming, while others have warned against reading too much into the inversion. Our view is that the answer... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Update Nigeria: Rate cut (another) hit to CBN credibility Today’s rate cut was another signal that Nigerian policymakers are prioritising monetary stimulus over their own inflation target. We doubt that this cut – which will probably be the first in a cycle... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Dubai: solid growth, but debt risks linger Economic growth in Dubai should hold up well at 3.8-4.5% over the next couple of years due to a boost from the 2020 World Expo. Loan restructurings undertaken in 2014 have masked the Emirate’s debt... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Case-Shiller/FHFA Prices & Housing Starts (Jan./Feb.) The sharp fall in single-family starts in February was expected given the surge recorded the previous month, and leaves starts close to where they were towards the end of 2018. But even with house... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Brazil IPCA-15 (Mar.) The rise in Brazilian inflation to 4.2% y/y in the middle of March is unlikely to trouble Copom. Inflation should begin to decline again in Q2. And we still expect the Selic rate to remain unchanged... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response UK Finance Mortgage Lending (Feb.) Despite a slight rise in house purchase mortgage approvals during February, the outlook for lending is weak. Indeed, even if a Brexit deal were to be agreed soon, we expect no meaningful recovery in... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Metals Data Response China and India Gold Imports (Feb.) Even looking through the Lunar New Year distortions to China’s imports, the latest trade data still point to very weak gold demand from India and China in February. While China and India’s imports are... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update How would the DNB respond to more ECB QE? If the past is anything to go by, a fresh round of ECB QE would lead to upward pressure on the Danish krone. We think Denmark’s Nationalbank would react with a combination of FX intervention and rate... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update Spain’s economy likely to slow after general election The Spanish economy looks set to slow slightly as the effect of last year’s fiscal stimulus fades and weak growth elsewhere in the euro-zone takes a toll. That said, it will still probably be one of... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Chart Pack Robust growth in Andes, but CA deficits widening Robust GDP growth in the Andes over the past year or so has been a rare piece of good news in Latin America, but in Chile and Colombia’s case, this has come alongside growing external vulnerabilities... 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Prospects for government bonds remain brightest in US Given the prospects for monetary policy, we forecast that that the rally in government bonds will continue in the US; run out of steam in Germany and Japan; and reverse in the UK if a “no-deal” Brexit... 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Bond yields likely to remain low, or fall further this year 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
