Emerging Europe Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) Another weak batch of PMI data from Central Europe points to a contraction in the region’s manufacturing sector over the coming months. More encouragingly, a rebound in Russia’s survey supports our... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Downhill from here … After a strong first quarter, we expect the prices of most commodities to ease back over the course of 2019 on the back of subdued growth in demand. There are now broad-based signs of slower growth in... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Future SPR buying to have little impact on oil prices We estimate that strategic petroleum reserves (SPRs) in India and China are at record highs and will continue to increase in the years ahead. In contrast, we think that US reserves will slide... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly Bolsonaro boost over, MXN shrugs off USMCA risks Expectations for reforms from the Bolsonaro government came crashing back to earth this week and there is now a risk premium on the Brazilian real and dollar bonds that could increase further unless... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Investors still sitting on the fence, as May’s deal defeated again 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit: Two years on and two weeks to go The original Brexit day (29 th March) is upon us, yet the end point and the consequences for the economy and the financial markets are as unclear as ever. As the dust of this week settles, the four... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Parliament’s Third Vote on May’s Brexit Deal The rejection of May’s Brexit deal by 58 votes means with two weeks and eight hours to go until the UK is due to leave the EU there is still no clear path for Brexit itself, the economy and the... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Strong January likely followed by weak February The consensus-beating jump in monthly GDP in January means that first-quarter growth will not be as weak as we previously expected. Growth will still be well below potential, though, and our forecast... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Draghi dovish, mixed bag of data Speeches by policymakers this week suggest that the ECB is likely to provide more policy accommodation within the next six months or so. All the more so as the latest survey data continue to point to... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response New Home Sales (Feb.) Given the volatility of the data, we wouldn’t read too much into the rise in new home sales to a one-year high in February. Nevertheless, given healthy levels of inventory and evidence that builders... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Pakistan hikes rates, further tightening to come The State Bank of Pakistan (SBP) today raised its policy rate by a further 50bp to 10.75%, and we think further rate hikes are likely over the coming months due to worries about high inflation and the... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly SA debt back under review, central banks’ dovish tilt The upcoming Moody’s review of South African debt has raised fresh concerns about a sell-off in the country’s bond market. But we think that these fears are overdone. Meanwhile, central bank meetings... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Swedbank under scrutiny, WOW Air collapse The scandal at Swedbank raise questions about transparency, corruption, and the relationship between banks and regulators in Sweden, while the collapse of WOW Air means that the chances of further... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Markets coming round to our view on rate cuts The partial inversion of the Treasury yield curve has attracted a lot of attention over the past week, but we have been more surprised by the speed at which markets have started to price in rate cuts... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response GDP by Industry (Jan.) January’s 0.3% rise in monthly GDP was far better than expected, and its broad-based nature lends support to the view that the economy’s recent soft patch was mainly due to temporary factors. But with... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update No sign of Brexit panic There are some signs that households are saving more, possibly in response to concerns about Brexit, but consumers aren’t panicking. And a higher saving rate now could lead to a more significant... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
