Commodities Chart Pack Energy price divergence to unwind The prices of most commodities struggled to find direction in March, although oil made some further gains. If a US-China trade deal is signed in April, prices may revive but we suspect that any rally... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update What should we make of Rosstat’s latest revisions? The strength of Russian GDP growth in Q4 (and the upwards revisions to the historical data) has caused controversy. But overall, we think the new GDP figures probably bear a closer resemblance to... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Update EM manufacturing improves at the end of Q1 The rise in the aggregate EM manufacturing PMI at the end of last quarter suggests that the slowdown in EM industrial production growth may have bottomed out. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economic Outlook Growth to remain subdued Japan’s economy has made a poor start to the year and, with the sales tax hike looming and export demand likely to be subdued, GDP growth will remain well below trend both this year and next. The... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response ISM Manufacturing Index (Mar.) The modest rebound in the ISM manufacturing index to 55.3 in March, from 54.2, offers some reassurance that the US factory sector isn’t following its European counterpart off a cliff, although the... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Global manufacturing downturn starting to bottom out? It’s still far too early to say for sure, but March’s manufacturing PMIs offer some hope that the worst is over for the downturn in global manufacturing, at least outside the euro-zone. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response Retail Sales (Feb.) The decline in underlying retail sales in February was offset by upward revisions to previous months, but real consumption growth still appears to have slowed sharply in the first quarter. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Update Implications of Brexit developments and CGT changes The extension of the Brexit deadline and new capital gains tax (CGT) rules do little to change our view on the UK commercial property market. Indeed, under any Brexit scenario except no deal we still... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Saudi slowdown to be steeper than most expect Saudi Arabia’s economy expanded at its fastest pace in three years in Q4 of last year, but our GDP Tracker points to a renewed slowdown at the start of 2019. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response Markit/CIPS Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) Stockbuilding ahead of Brexit undoubtedly flattered the manufacturing PMI in March. Nonetheless, the manufacturing sector should support GDP growth in Q1. And the increase in the employment and new... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Update Chile’s central bank signals lower for longer The statement accompanying the Chilean central bank’s decision to hold its policy rate at 3.00% on Friday night signalled that rates are likely to stay on hold for longer than they had previously... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash HICP (Mar.), Final Mfg PMIs (Mar.) March’s decline in euro-zone headline inflation was largely due to the timing of Easter, so the continued weakness in the manufacturing PMIs will be a bigger worry for the ECB. 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Data Response South Africa Manufacturing PMI (Mar.) South Africa’s manufacturing PMI slipped again in March, suggesting that power cuts and soft demand weighed on the sector. Though the measure has a tendency to overstate the weakness of manufacturing... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Update Still grounds for caution, despite stronger China PMIs The strength of the latest China survey data may signal that growth there has passed its low-point. But we think there are still reasons to be cautious, with negative implications for most commodity... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Manufacturing PMIs (Mar.) The manufacturing PMIs for March provide further evidence that the Swiss and Swedish economies made a weak start to 2019. This underlines our view that policymakers there will be in no rush to tighten... 1st April 2019 · 1 min read
