Global Markets Update “Safe” bond yields may stay low for longer than in 2016 The yields of 10-year government bonds in Germany, Switzerland and Japan have edged up after touching 2½-year lows earlier this week. But we doubt that they will rebound as fast, or as far, as they... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Commercial Property Outlook Capital value outlook boosted by lower risk-free rates With the euro-zone economy set for a period of weak growth, the outlook for rental growth across the sectors is poor. While this would normally lessen the case for yields to fall further, with risk... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Non-Euro Europe Commercial Property Outlook Scandi retail to tread water; full steam ahead in CEE In Scandinavia and Switzerland, retail will be the clear loser over the next few years, whereas Scandinavian office and industrial markets are set to outperform, led by Stockholm. In emerging Europe... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GDP Quarterly National Accounts (Q4 2018) Despite the ongoing impasse in Westminster on Brexit, weak GDP growth of 0.2% q/q at the end of last year probably marks a trough. The robust monthly increase in GDP in January and indications that... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Weak Q1 data, Thai election, rupiah under pressure The recent economic data from across Emerging Asia have continued to disappoint. Our Emerging Asia GDP Tracker suggest the regional is now growing at its weakest pace in three years. Meanwhile... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Three key points on the latest EM currency sell-off We are not surprised that EM currencies have weakened against the dollar over the past week, and expect them to fall further by the end of the year. Three features of the latest sell-off help to shed... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Data Response GfK/NOP Consumer Confidence (Mar.) With just two weeks to go until Brexit and uncertainty higher than ever, it is reassuring that the GfK/NOP measure of consumer confidence held steady in March and consumers’ view of both their... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Mortgage Lending (Feb.) January’s jump in house purchase mortgage approvals was not repeated in February. And while lending has been surprisingly resilient in the face of high house prices and mounting uncertainty, we expect... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Data Response Lending to commercial property (Feb.) The increase in net lending for standing property and development in February was encouraging but with capital values expected to fall this year we do not expect net lending to increase substantially. 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swiss KOF Economic Barometer (Mar.) The sharp pick-up in the Swiss KOF Economic Barometer in March does not change our view that GDP growth in Switzerland will slow this year. However, it supports our forecast that the economy will hold... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Turkish local elections, Russian GDP figures Concerns about Turkey’s economy and financial markets are unlikely to fade even once Sunday’s local elections are out of the way. If anything, we think that they will intensify. Meanwhile, expected... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Focus What’s at stake in Ukraine’s presidential election? Ukraine’s presidential election this Sunday is set to be a close race but, whoever ultimately wins, it looks like the recent shift away from orthodox policymaking will continue. Dollar bond spreads... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Housing Market Data Response Nationwide House Prices (Mar.) London’s house price fall intensified in Q1, in line with our expectations. That reflects the high level of prices there, as well as Brexit uncertainty. Looking ahead, we think prices in the capital... 29th March 2019 · 1 min read
Middle East & North Africa Economics Update Egyptian central bank pauses easing cycle The Egyptian central bank’s decision today to keep interest rates unchanged (rather than cut rates) appears to have been a result of the jump in inflation in February. But if we’re right that... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Update China rebound won’t get Germany back on track Weaker Chinese demand can explain only a fraction of the slowdown in German GDP growth over the past year: softer demand in other export markets and in the euro-zone are more important factors... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Yield curve not the only recession indicator For all the focus on the Treasury yield curve, other leading indicators of activity are not yet signalling that a recession is imminent. But their recent deterioration does suggest that the risks are... 28th March 2019 · 1 min read
