UK Housing Market Chart Pack London Housing Chart Book: London housing market to soften further House price growth in London has been surprisingly resilient. But with prices very high, interest rates set to rise and the stock of unsold homes growing, we expect a 3% fall in house prices this year... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Data Response Mexico Bi-Weekly CPI (Mar.) Mexican inflation remained above target, at 4.0% y/y, in the first half of March and will probably stay around this rate in Q2. But we expect that the headline rate will decline during the second half... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
China Economics Weekly Fiscal front-loading, land demand, BRI obstacles While China’s incoming economic data have mostly been weak recently, two under-reported positives have helped shore up growth: a fiscal splurge by local governments and strong property construction... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update CBR likely to cut rates before the end of this year The Central Bank of Russia’s dovish tilt today has prompted us to bring forward some of the interest rate cuts that we had been anticipating in 2020. We now think that the policy rate will be lowered... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Weekly Euro-zone likely to have grown slowly again in Q1 This week delivered more data which suggest that the euro-zone economy grew at a meagre pace in Q1. And the Composite PMI is now at a level where the ECB has often loosened monetary policy in the past... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Weekly Trade downturn, Malaysia deflation, Thai election The past week has brought further bad news on the trade front, with more countries reporting a decline in exports. A turn in the electronics inventory cycle, the trade war and weaker global demand are... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response Consumer Prices (Feb.) & Retail Sales (Jan.) The recent decline in unit labour cost growth suggests that February’s drop in one of the Bank’s measures of core inflation is a sign of things to come. Although retail sales volumes performed a touch... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Weekly Norway going it alone, but tightening cycle to be short In a week when the Fed called time on its tightening cycle, and further signs of weakness in euro-zone activity lent extra support to our view that the ECB will ultimately have to do more to ease... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Update Brexit Delay: What’s new and what’s not? The delay granted by the EU last night has pushed back Brexit by at least two weeks, from 29th March to 12th April, but four options remain on the table – deal, no deal, no Brexit or another delay. So... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Japan Economics Weekly What would it take to scrap the sales tax? Japan’s economy on some measures is weaker now than it was on the two previous occasions when Prime Minister Abe announced a delay to the planned sales tax hike, so it is perhaps not surprising that... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Economics Update Monetary policy likely to prevent weaker NOK We are now more hawkish than the consensus about the outlook for monetary policy in Norway this year. But we don’t expect the krone to keep strengthening, as we forecast that oil prices will fall. 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response Euro-zone Flash PMIs (Mar.) The drop back in the euro-zone Composite PMI for March comes as a disappointment to those hoping that the economy was beginning to turn a corner. And far from easing, as many had anticipated, the... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Economics Weekly Slow growth in SA, budget quandaries in Nigeria South African retail sales figures released this week provided another sign of economic weakness, and worsening electricity problems will add to economic headwinds. A new budget report has raised... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Chart Pack Emerging Europe inflation bucking the trend Emerging Europe was one of the few parts of the world where inflation rose last month. In the Czech Republic, Hungary and Romania, this was driven by rapid wage growth which has pushed core inflation... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Markets Update Monetary policy likely to prevent weaker NOK We are now more hawkish than the consensus about the outlook for monetary policy in Norway this year. But we don’t expect the krone to keep strengthening, as we forecast that oil prices will fall. 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Australia & New Zealand Economics Weekly A deeper cut & immigration limitations We now believe GDP growth will slow to 1.5% in 2019, which would be well below the analyst consensus of around 2.5%. And we suspect that the recent uptick in the unemployment rate in New South Wales... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
