China Economics Update Weak profits strengthen case for benchmark rate cuts A sharp fall in earnings for industrial firms in January and February shows the pressure that weak demand is putting firms’ balance sheets under. We think officials will respond by cutting benchmark... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Trade Monitor World trade will struggle to grow this year The pick-up in world trade in January is little to cheer about. A partial rebound was always likely after the dreadful end to last year. Leading indicators suggest that world trade volumes will remain... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily “Distortions” don’t change the yield curve’s gloomy message 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Data Response US Weekly Petroleum Status Report US crude stocks rose this week as the refinery rate ticked down and net imports picked up. We don’t think that this trend will continue as we believe that OPEC exports to the US will continue to fall. 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkey: financial conditions tighten sharply The Turkish lira has recovered lost ground, but financial conditions remain much tighter than they were at the start of last week and point to continued weakness in domestic demand. 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Update Monetary Indicators Monitor (Feb.) The pick-up in broad money growth to a six-year high in February is not necessarily a positive for the economy because it is a lagging indicator. But it does at least suggest the Fed’s balance sheet... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
US Data Response International Trade (Jan.) The sharp fall in the trade deficit in January was mainly due to a larger than expected drop in imports, which is hardly a positive sign for the economy. Nonetheless, with imports likely to have been... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Data Response International Merchandise Trade (Jan.) The further decline in the international manufacturing surveys in recent months suggests that January’s strong export growth is unlikely to be sustained. With import volumes rising by even more than... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Chart Pack Malaysia’s central bank hints at rate cuts Malaysia’s central bank (BNM) today dropped its clearest hint yet that interest rate cuts are on the way after it lowered its growth forecasts for this year and pledged that monetary policy would be... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Activity Monitor EM GDP growth slowing in Q1 The slowdown in EM GDP growth over the second half of 2018 worsened at the start of this year. EM GDP growth in Q1 is shaping up to be the weakest since Q4 2016. 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Africa Chart Pack Africa: Grim news across the region Figures released over the past month added to concerns that Africa’s largest three economies stumbled in early 2019. There was, admittedly, some good news from Kenya, where judges struck down a cap on... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Economics Focus Italy at risk of perma-recession Over the next ten years, we think that Italy’s economy will fail to grow because productivity growth will remain weak and total employment will fall. As a consequence, the public debt ratio will... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Industrial Metals Update Zinc prices to be blown off course While dwindling exchange stocks have helped to boost the price of zinc in recent months, we think that prices are set to drop appreciably later this year as increased mine output finally starts to... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Nordic & Swiss Data Response Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator (Mar.) The decline in the Swedish Economic Tendency Indicator (ETI) in March was not as bad as we had feared given the sharp fall in the euro-zone manufacturing PMI last week. But it is still consistent with... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Markets Chart Pack Global forces drag down gilt yields We doubt that the downward pressure on UK gilt yields from the weaker global economy will fade over the next year. In the near term, the 10-year gilt yield may therefore fall below its current two... 27th March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Chart Pack Markets right to price in rate cuts While our GDP growth forecasts are far below consensus, the narrowing and even outright inversion of parts of the yield curve in the past month suggests that investors also have little faith in the... 26th March 2019 · 1 min read
