Emerging Europe Economics Update Turkish lira back in the firing line The sell-off in the Turkish lira late last week provided a timely reminder that many of the factors that drove last year’s currency crisis – including geopolitical tensions and concerns about the... 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
Asia Economics Update Thai election result is bad news for the economy Thailand looks set for a period of political and economic uncertainty after the military and the main opposition party claimed victory in yesterday’s general election. The inconclusive result... 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Commercial Property Chart Pack All-property initial yields rise above 5% Yields increased for the second consecutive month across the three main sectors in February. In turn, all-property net initial yields rose to over 5%. This is the highest in a year, but is still lower... 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
Europe Data Response German Ifo Survey (Mar.) The Ifo Business Climate Index for March was a little better than expected, but it does not suggest that the German economy is out of the woods. 25th March 2019 · 1 min read
Commodities Weekly Price gains on borrowed time In a week when fears about global economic growth were stoked by a dovish Fed and weak euro-zone flash PMI readings for March, commodity prices actually performed rather well. However, we think that... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Latin America Economics Weekly A pension setback in Brazil, Argentina’s recession Swings in Brazil’s equity and currency markets this week suggest that investors are coming to terms with the idea that pension reform will be diluted. But there are much greater concerns about... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Brexit Delay: What’s new and what’s not? The delay granted by the EU last night has pushed back Brexit by at least two weeks, from 29th March to 12th April, but four options remain on the table – deal, no deal, no Brexit or another delay. So... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Capital Daily Euro likely to fall further in 2019, before rebounding in 2020 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Markets Economics Chart Pack EM currencies come back into the firing line A spell of relative calm for EM currencies was broken this month, as several including the Argentine peso, Turkish lira, Brazilian real and South African rand fell sharply, despite a more dovish US... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Global Economics Update Manufacturing malaise shows no signs of abating March’s flash PMIs add to evidence that GDP growth was subdued in the three largest advanced economies in Q1, with Germany continuing to take the brunt of the global manufacturing slowdown. 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Emerging Europe Economics Weekly Strong data, Turkish MPC in a bind, Hungary rates The first batch of hard activity data for February out of Emerging Europe – published this week in Russia and Poland – were surprisingly strong, but it seems unlikely that this will be sustained as... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Energy Update Oil stocks are unlikely to fall sharply in 2019 The guiding principle behind OPEC’s recent production cuts is to reduce global oil stocks and to put prices on a firmer footing. In the near term, stocks may decline given that OPEC is now producing... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
Canada Economics Weekly Morneau gambles on the housing market In his 2019 budget Finance Minister Bill Morneau revealed extra spending amounting to a modest 0.2% of GDP, which will not materially change the outlook. By introducing a policy to help first-time... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
UK Economics Weekly Brexit delayed, but choice of destinations remains the same The postponement of Brexit removes the risk of the UK leaving the EU without a deal next Friday. But Parliament is still facing the same four Brexit options it always has; deal, no deal, revoke... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
US Housing Market Data Response Existing Home Sales (Feb.) The surge in existing home sales in February is likely to prove short-lived. Concerns over the health of the economy will act to offset the positive impact of lower interest rates, and coupled with... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
US Economics Weekly Fed too late to prevent slowdown By making it clear that interest rates will not be raised this year and that quantitative tightening will start to wind down earlier than previously suggested, the Fed was even more dovish this week... 22nd March 2019 · 1 min read
